2023-08-28 12:27:53
What do the television, the refrigerator and the electric vehicle have in common? Apart from consuming the same energy, all these new technologies follow a similar pattern in mass market adoption.
To give an example, it took two decades for the first microwave ovens to reach 10% of American homes and it was not until they reached this point in the 1980s that their sales skyrocketed until they were present in almost every kitchen in the country. .
According to Bloomberg, the electric car is at a similar point: when its sales exceed a penetration of 5%, consumer preferences are reversed and, as seen in pioneering countries, it takes up to four years to reach a share of 25%. .
A year ago, 19 countries had achieved this milestone. In 2023, they have joined Spain, Hungary, Canada, Australia and Thailand to the list.
Getting to that point is often slow, until the challenges of cost of ownership, charger availability and driver skepticism are overcome, but once they are, sales skyrocket.
In the US, this turning point was not reached until the end of 2021, relatively late for a country with its purchasing power. However, the ballasts were that they requested longer autonomies -instead of more affordable models-, as well as SUV and pick-up silhouettes, which need much larger batteries.
Now, zero emission sales are growing rapidly in the country – in the second quarter they were 42% more than in the same period of 2022 – but they have not reached the explosive trajectory of, for example, China.
This is expected to change with the arrival of models such as the Tesla Cybertruck, Chevrolet Blazer and Silverado, Ford F-150 and Explorer, Ram 1500 or Jeep Wrangler.
In India, the third largest market by volume after China and the United States, the magical 5% looms on the horizon, as it currently occupies a 3% share. Tesla CEO Elon Musk met Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modi last June to express his intention to “enter the market as soon as possible.”
The S-shaped curve is characterized by a slow start-up until it exceeds a minimum threshold, after which it shoots up and slows down again once adoption is widespread. This is the case of Norway, whose sales of electric vehicles have slowed down once they have exceeded 80% of the quota.
The case of plug-in hybrids
While countries like Norway, the US or China opted directly for the electric vehicle, other markets –mainly in Europe– turned to plug-in hybrids as an intermediate option.
If they are counted together with zero emissions, more than 10 million units of cars capable of recharging have already been sold in the world. According to Bloomberg, “since hybrids don’t require as much infrastructure as electrics, the early adoption phase can be more erratic.”
Taking into account this joint category of EVs and PHEVs, the mass adoption threshold becomes 10% share. This has been verified in markets such as the United States, Canada or Australia.
Although the S-curve is often used as a demand model, it can also be used in production settings. In Europe, once a manufacturer exceeds 10% of its sales with a plug, these triple in less than two years.
So far, 90% of the world’s zero-emissions sales come from the US, China and Europe, so the countries responsible for around a third of sales – mainly Japan, India and Russia – have not yet reached the point of inflection.
This is also the case for the 20 most populous countries, since only four of them have exceeded the 5% threshold. Now, doubts arise about the supply capacity of critical raw materials for batteries by mining.
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