2023-06-07 13:25:52
Will we have enough electricity for everyone? In France, the consumption of electrons will increase much faster than expected so far, to meet European climate objectives and the challenges of reindustrialization, estimates the manager of the high voltage network RTE in a report published on Wednesday.
This acceleration in consumption will force the country to double its production of renewable energies by 2035, underlines RTE in this prospective analysis which should inform the public debate before the presentation in the coming months of the country’s energy strategy by the government.
The manager expects annual electricity consumption to rise sharply, between 580 and 640 terawatt hours in 2035, while in 2021 he was still counting on consumption of 540 TWh in an average so-called reference scenario, and 585 TWh in the event of “deep reindustrialisation” of the country. In 2022, the French consumed 460 TWh of electricity.
Compensate for the programmed abandonment of gas and coal
The new forecasts take into account the upheavals that have taken place over the past two years: the publication of the European “Fit for 55” program, which reinforces the obligations of European countries to reduce CO2 emissions (-55% compared to 1990) and the war in Ukraine. This has highlighted the need for industrial sovereignty and the relocation of production to be carried out in tandem with the decarbonization of these activities. Clearly, an urgent and massive need for electricity in factories to replace gas and coal.
In fact, primary industries such as steel, fertilizers, cement or even chemicals, supported by public recovery plans, are announcing decarbonization investments involving massive use of electricity. This is to compensate for the planned abandonment of gas and coal in order to achieve the climate objectives of the Paris agreement (COP21).
As a result, the growth in electricity consumption in France should exceed 10 TWh per year during the decade 2025-2035, a rate which “has not been reached since the 1980s”, estimates RTE in its report.
The rate of growth “highlights the magnitude of the challenge facing the electricity system”, insists RTE. We will have to quickly produce more low-carbon electricity even though the new nuclear reactors announced by the government will not see the light of day before 2035.
“Ambitious, but doable”
“Achieving low-carbon electricity production of at least 600 TWh by 2035, and if possible 650 TWh or even more so as to cover the upper end of the range of electricity consumption prospects, seems ambitious (…) but doable”, reassures RTE . This will in fact lead the country to produce “more renewables, and faster in the coming years”, summarizes Xavier Piechaczyk, president of RTE.
With the aim of reaching at least 250 TWh by 2035, compared to around 120 TWh today, i.e. a doubling of production, the report indicates. “By 2030, the increase in renewables will essentially come from onshore wind power and solar power”, specifies RTE. Between 2030 and 2025, offshore wind power can take over “provided that France manages to allocate parks on a massive scale between now and 2025”.
Finally, beyond 2035, the renewal of the nuclear fleet by EPR2 “could make it possible to continue the growth of production” of low-carbon electricity. To complete the energy equation, “we need efficiency, sobriety, nuclear production that is as available as possible and a lot of additional renewable energies”, adds Xavier Piechaczyk.
Sobriety, and all forms of energy saving, presented as an option in the previous 2021 report, “is no longer an option, it’s what’s new”, he adds. “Our objectives are getting closer and closer, so we have to act very quickly,” adds Thomas Veyrenc, executive director of RTE. According to him, “aiming for less than 250 TWh of renewables in 2035 would be taking a big risk on the (climate) trajectory in the medium term”.
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