2023-11-14 12:22:27
How to fit a circle into a square? In this case, here to preserve both the household budget, the competitiveness of businesses and the investment capacity of EDF, weighed down by a debt of 65 billion euros, and which operates the 56 nuclear reactors currently in operation and must also build six new EPRs? The answer is necessarily complex. The government nevertheless tried to provide one this Tuesday morning during a conference which brought together the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire, the Minister of Energy Transition Agnès Pannier Runacher, the Minister of Industry Roland Lescure and the CEO of EDF Luc Rémont.
“We concluded an agreement this morning with EDF which guarantees a price of around 70 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) which corresponds to the total costs of producing nuclear electricity in France,” explained the Minister of the Economy. This agreement will make it possible to build a system which will follow on from that of the Arenh (Regulated Access to Historic Nuclear Electricity) which for almost twelve years has required EDF to sell part of its nuclear electricity production at a lower price. sold off (42 euros per MWh) to its competitors. This system ends in 2025.
“It was therefore necessary to plan a sequel, starting now,” said Agnès Pannier-Runacher. And what comes next is both the agreement that was concluded a few weeks ago with the European Union which disconnects electricity prices from those of gas, and the one that we have just concluded with EDF. » A new device which is nevertheless distinguished by a certain complexity. “As soon as prices are significantly above 70 euros per MWh, a mechanism for capturing the rent will be put in place to be quickly redistributed to the consumer. This capture would be 50% (of the difference between the observed price and the reference price of 70 euros) from a threshold of 78 to 80 euros. Then 90% from 110 euros. »
What prices from 2025?
A new gas plant therefore, officially intended to protect consumers “from price volatility”, according to Bruno Le Maire, and to allow the government to no longer have to draw up a new price shield. “The one currently in place must last until the end of 2024, recalled the minister, and has cost the State, and ultimately the taxpayer, more than 40 billion euros. But thanks to him, the increase in electricity prices will be a maximum of 10% next February. Any other figures or predictions are fanciful. » This agreement, which also follows the “renationalization” of EDF, following a public purchase offer (OPA) of nearly 10 billion euros, represents the energy plan “the most radical since the plan Messmer launched in 1974”, in the words of Bruno Le Maire. This plan allowed France to build the current nuclear fleet, for an investment of 200 billion euros today.
But what about the evolution of electricity prices after 2024 and the end of the tariff shield? And even more after 2025 and the end of Arenh? “The megawatt hour of electricity at 42 euros only concerned a third of EDF’s nuclear electricity production,” the minister recalled. The rest was dependent on market volatility. There, all production will be affected by this new regulation with this threshold of 70 euros. »
It prevents. We are currently moving from cyclical inflation linked to the war in Ukraine and the low availability of the nuclear fleet in 2022 linked to maintenance and corrosion problems, to structural and lasting inflation linked to the energy transition. In this impossible equation, there is only one certainty: in the end, whatever safeguards the government puts in place, it will be households, but also businesses who will suffer through the rise in their bills but also in prices. general.
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