From Paris
An unusual silence surrounds car number 9 of the High Speed Train (TGV) that goes from Nice, on the Côte d’Azur, to Paris. It is the end of the month of August that marks the end of the holidays, the return to work and the restart of classes. This time, however, there is a collective sorrow that has nothing to do with nostalgia for leaving the paradise of the sea behind and returning to the city. Only a young couple with a three-year-old girl speaks in a low voice about what the other passengers are silent about. She tells her partner: “I’m worried. I don’t know what will become of us, if we can continue to live in Paris, keep our jobs and pay all the bills. Everything is very expensive and I feel that it will be worse.” The man strokes her head, kisses her forehead and whispers something in her ear. Many of the passengers on that train will think the same. What awaits us? Communication strategy prior to the next steps or candid picture of the situation, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, will have contributed to increasing the concern of the French in the face of a present of multiple adversities and a shaky future. Last Wednesday, August 24, in the Council of Ministers, who had defined himself a few months ago as “an optimist of the will” changed register. The Head of State, during a 15-minute speech before his Ministers, portrayed “the great upheaval of the world” synthesizing the end or exhaustion of three pillars: “the end of abundance, the end of carelessness, the end of the evidence.” The first goal, that of “abundance, concerns raw materials and everything “that seemed perpetually available to us” such as, for example, water or, in the field of finance, real estate loans at minimum rates (between 3, 5 and 4 percent) and even money at negative rates.
“The End of Carefree”
“The End of Carefree” refers first of all to the war that shook Europe again, that is, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war that lasted for more than six months. As for “the end of the evidence”, for Macron it was a matter of admitting that liberal democracy is no longer a global aspiration but is threatened by the emergence or the temptation to bet on authoritarian regimes rather than parliamentary liberalism. “Our freedom has a cost,” Macron said as a way of anticipating the increases and sacrifices that will come with the winter. Several well-known ministers and parliamentarians also displayed similar language elements in the media, transcending a gray, threatened world, a future full of ends and ruptures.. “We are heading towards the most serious crisis that France has known since the Second World War” (1939-1945) said in an interview with the weekly Point the centrist leader Francois Bayrou, who added: “I don’t think this crisis can be overcome without a great national effort.” At the moment, this “national effort” seems to fall solely on the workers. No measures have been evoked for the wealthiest classes and, as far as the energy crisis is concerned, very little directed towards large industries. Someone in the government talked about limiting the use of private jets without any other authority following their intentions. The very rich will continue to fly and the less wealthy will surely enter a phase of reducing energy consumption.
The data and the weather do not encourage optimism. Partial end of the pandemic and the imbalances it caused, war in Ukraine, foreseeable austerity policies to reduce energy consumption (the famous “energy sobriety”), lack of hydrocarbons, historical drought and inflation are the reality that awaits millions of people who return from vacations during which, at least those who had closed their eyes, plunged into the territory of horror: climatic disturbances caused one of the strongest and most extensive heatwaves in history, as well as the burning of tens of thousands of hectares. Now they did understand that climate change was not an environmental metaphor but a sudden hammer that could cause tragedies and immense damage.
temperatures
This fall and winter the temperatures of the stoves will surely be limited or regulated down to compensate for the consequences of the energy crisis. Inflation will not be a novelty. The prices of the basic products of the family basket reached sudden peaks even before the war in Ukraine took root and triggered the problems and global inflation that it unleashed. Naphtha increased considerably and the government had to resort to subsidies or negotiations with the big oil companies to control prices. The other big increase, that of electricity, will not be long in coming, even if 70 percent of the energy consumed in France comes from nuclear power plants. The war in the Ukraine does nothing to clear the quicksand, and this beyond France. In early July 2022, the Russian president Vladimir Putin he warned: “If a more intense policy is continued in the face of sanctions (against Russia), this could lead to even more serious, even catastrophic, consequences for the world energy market.” And so it happened. Of all the ends evoked by Macron, the one that arouses the most fear is the war in Ukraine and the total absence of a roadmap on what could happen. Putin is still in Ukraine, autumn is upon us and there is not the remotest prospect of a military or negotiated solution.
“It’s like we’re living with a sword over our heads after years and years of peace and prosperity,” says Jean-Michel Tournier, a restaurant owner in the 14th arrondissement of Paris. Everything is preparing for rough months. Macron was the linchpin of the “optimists’ league” and became the herald of the ends to come. Jean-Daniel Levydirector of pollster Harris Interactive France, admits that, suddenly, Macron’s position was not the most suitable: “You cannot maintain an optimistic discourse as before. Today, the mood of the French is very different”.
The sudden negative communication from Macron and his ministers surprised by the contrast with the Macron “of the good news”, says Jean-Michel Tournier. “Not because of the content. I think that for a while now, between the war, the climate crisis, inflation, the pandemic and the drought, the French know that they no longer live in the best territory in the world. We didn’t need anyone to tell us what was wrong that we are going to spend it”. The French opposition judged between laughter and criticism the new position of Macron and his Executive. Jean-Luc Melenchon, the leader of France Insoumise, said: »When you are in a country where there are nine million poor people, hearing such a thing is incredible. Mr Macron, there was never abundance, there was always irresponsibility ».
The account of the polyphonic crises is about to come to the table. There is little doubt that it will be the less wealthy sectors of society who will pay for the addition. “For the others, as always, it will be subtraction”commented, between risas, Jean-Michel Tournier.
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