2023-07-04 17:58:34
After the first few months of the year in which the labor market has broken records, job creation spikes –or at least weakens significantly– precisely when summer begins, the best time for the Spanish economy, and when we are about to the gates of a general election. It is true that this time, for the moment, it has not managed to destroy jobs –as surprisingly it happened for the first time in July of last year–, but it can be said that it is the worst June in the last eight years. Barely 54,541 jobs have been created in the sixth month of the year, a bad figure that to make it worse we have to go back to 2015, when Spain was still recovering from the real estate bubble crisis, according to average affiliation data published on Tuesday. by the Ministry of Social Security.
But not only that. At this beginning of the summer season, less than half of the jobs of last year have been created and a quarter of those achieved in April and May. Curiously, in just two months it has gone from marking the historical record for membership in practically two decades to being the worst data in the last seven years. Both extremes in a short period of time, although at least part of this slowdown can be explained precisely by an advance in summer hiring and not only by a moderation in economic growth, which everything indicates will worsen in the second half of the year. anus.
However, the seasonally adjusted affiliation data is even worse –the statistic that Minister José Luis Escrivá considers the “real” and most reliable–, which more clearly reflects the slowdown experienced by the labor market, since, once Discounting the effects of the calendar, in this case, more than 20,000 jobs have been destroyed, something that had not happened in any June of the last decade and represents almost double the number of affiliates lost in 2013, a critical year for the Spanish economy .
The system, at maximum
Despite this slowdown that has caused the interannual employment rate to fall to 2.5%, almost two points less than a year ago, Social Security set a new maximum by reaching 20.86 million contributors after adding more than half a million in just twelve months.
The goal of exceeding 21 million workers is closer; in fact, it was almost achieved on June 19, when in the daily series of affiliation the 20.9 million workers were comfortably surpassed for the first time. It remains to be seen, however, if, as the second vice president, Yolanda Díaz has said, it will be achieved this summer or if the pace of creation continues to slow down and prevents it.
On the other side of the labor market, registered unemployment has fallen by 50,268 people, a figure slightly higher than last year, but lower than the average of close to 100,000 fewer unemployed than the last ten years. Of course, for the first time since 2008 the number of unemployed falls below the psychological barrier of 2.7 million.
However, these data must be taken with caution, since the proliferation of discontinuous permanent workers after the labor reform has distorted these statistics since these workers are not counted as unemployed when they are without activity. In fact, the gap between the unemployed and job seekers has widened, people who want to work and cannot, which, far from falling, have increased in June and even in the last year, and to a greater extent those who are in a relationship labor. This is where the discontinuous landlines without activity would be included, which, although there are no official data (the Government still does not want to give this statistic), some experts estimate around 600,000.
time is stagnant
Other shadows left behind by the data for June are those related to hiring, which may also reflect a slowdown in the labor market ahead of time, since it usually happens from August and no longer from June. Thus, the contracts signed have plummeted 15.6% in one year and, although a reduction in this variable is normal in recent months after the implementation of the labor reform, it should be noted that in June last year it was already in force and, furthermore, it is one of the best months for employment.
In addition, the decrease in permanent contracts has been more pronounced (-19.4%) and it should be noted that for the first time more discontinuous permanent contracts were hired than full-time permanent ones: 39.8% of the total permanent contracts compared to 38, 3%.
The reduction in temporary employment, for its part, stagnates and even for the first time after the labor reform that restricts limited-term contracts is applied, increases, albeit minimally and remains at 14%, a record low.
Escrivá tries to hide the bad data and denies the slowdown
Escrivá has spent months trying to change the way members are counted in Spain. The minister denies the original data, the real ones, which offer the exact number of new affiliates and which were the ones that, until now, were given, month after month, by all the ministers before him. He prepared a new statistical series with seasonally adjusted figures (not including the oscillations of the time) and made a strong defense that it is the best way to know how the labor market is going.
For this reason, in the affiliation notes that the ministry disseminated in recent months, only the originals were cited in a final paragraph. Up to now, they are doing better than the seasonally adjusted ones and he once again emphasizes them and even hides the affiliation cut from the seasonally adjusted series.
In addition, both the minister and the rest of the Government refuse to talk about the slowdown that the experts point to and continue to maintain that employment in June maintained “extraordinary dynamism.”
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