Energy transition, because the reduction of emissions will only begin from 2024 onwards

2023-10-26 10:17:35

Despite a record increase in renewablethe world continues to consume too much fossil sources. In 2022, in fact, the CO2 emissions have grown and will grow further in 2023 until they reach peak in 2024with the result that in the meantime the greenhouse gas reduction curve will decrease much less steeply than it would need to avoid exceeding 1.5 degrees.

Also Dnva global certification body and consultancy firm, joins the chorus of pessimists on the future of the energy transition by raising yet another alarm in the report Energy Transition Outlook 2023. In fact, Dnv warns that the path towards a clean energy system has not yet really begun, as demonstrated by the numbers reported in the research: “In the last five years, renewable sources have satisfied 51% of new energy demand and fossil sources 49%. In absolute terms, the use of fossil fuels is still growing.”

So, according to Dnv, only from 2024 onwards will the reduction of emissions truly begin, therefore late on the roadmap indicated by the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Estimates confirm that in the “decade of climate action”, i.e. from now to 2030, the reduction will be just 4% and by 2050 only 46% compared to today. Based on these forecasts, for DNV “the pace of the transition is far from being fast enough for a zero-emissions energy system by 2050” and “limiting global warming to 1.5°C is therefore less likely than ever” .

Dnv, however, points out that a radical change in the global energy scenario. From the mid-2020s, renewables will overtake fossils. From 2025 almost all new capacity added will be non-fossil, with wind and solar growing 10- and 17-fold between 2022 and 2050, respectively. Over the next decade then, new fossil production in low- and middle-income countries will be largely offset by reductions in high-income countries. And primary energy production from coal will rise from the current 26% to 10% in 2050. However, “it will take the next 27 years to shift the fossil to non-fossil split of the energy mix currently 80 versus 20, to 48 versus 52 by mid-century.”