2023-05-15 09:22:33
The race for the Turkish presidency has yet to produce a winner. With his clear lead, incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan is one of the favorites in a likely runoff election on May 28.
Just missing the majority: Erdogan voters are following the results in Ankara on Monday night.
In the race for the presidency, Turkey faces a runoff election for the first time in its history. According to preliminary results, none of the three candidates received the required absolute majority of votes. The incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan has 49.34 percent, the candidate of the largest opposition alliance, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has 45 percent and the outsider Sinan Ogan has 5.23 percent. That makes the politician from the nationalist Ata Alliance a possible kingmaker for the second round on May 28.
Erdogan wins in the earthquake zone
With an estimated 2.6 million votes lead over his main challenger, Erdogan has fared significantly better than most polls had predicted. Despite the unprecedented economic crisis and serious omissions related to the February 6 twin earthquake, more than 26 million Turks have once again placed their trust in the President.
Although the election campaign can certainly not be described as fair due to the media dominance of the government camp and the brazen use of public funds, this is a clear vote. During his traditional appearance on the balcony of his AKP party headquarters in Ankara on Monday night, Erdogan was satisfied and confident of victory. In view of the high turnout of almost 88 percent, he spoke of a celebration of democracy.
Presidential election in Turkey 2023
As of 8:15 a.m. CEST, 98.96 percent of the urns have been counted
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The regional distribution of the votes shows the usual pattern in Turkey. Kilicdaroglu won majority votes in most major cities as well as in the traditionally secular coastal regions of the Aegean and Mediterranean. Added to this is the strong support in the Kurdish regions in the southeast of the country.
The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which the government has been trying to strangle for years, had called on its supporters to vote for the opposition candidate. In his Kurdish-Alevi home province of Tunceli (Dersim), four out of five voters cast their votes for Kilicdaroglu.
Erdogan dominated in the Anatolian hinterland and on the Black Sea coast. In most of the provinces in the earthquake area, where dissatisfaction with the government was actually very great, it rose to the top. In Kahramanmaras, where the epicenter of the first quake was located, Erdogan even achieved one of the best results in the country.
War of nerves on election night
The counting of votes, which was still ongoing, had developed into a war of nerves on election night. At times, both camps declared that they were ahead of their opponents. The opposition accused the government of deliberately delaying the publication of the data in constituencies with a clear lead for Kilicdaroglu through challenges. Reports appeared on social networks that some urns were counted up to eleven times.
The calculation was to give the impression of a clear victory for Erdogan with the first numbers, so that the opposition election observers would leave the polling stations before all the votes were counted. The opposition coalition called on hundreds of thousands of volunteers throughout the night to remain in the polling stations until the last vote was counted. Meral Aksener of the Iyi party, the second-strongest force in the alliance, announced the opposition would be in the lead by sunrise.
Unlike in the local elections four years ago, however, the opposition failed to catch up. At a joint appearance with the other party leaders of his alliance, Kilicdaroglu was confident that he would win the race in the second lap.
However, in courting the nationalist voters of third-placed Sinan Ogan, Erdogan and his ultra-right ally MHP appear to have an advantage over the broad opposition alliance, which is also supported by the most important Kurdish forces.
Government alliance retains majority in parliament
The balance of power in the new parliament is also strengthening Erdogan’s position. Despite losses compared to 2018, the AKP remains by far the strongest force. The government alliance, which also includes the MHP and the Islamist Welfare Party, continues to hold a comfortable majority with an expected 321 of the 600 MPs.
A cohabitation with which Turkey has no experience has always been considered an unpopular scenario. The argument that the state presidency and parliament should be led by the same forces and that Erdogan is therefore the right man to head the state is likely to catch the eye of many voters.
Apart from the great support that Erdogan still receives from his core voters even after two decades in power, Sunday’s results also confirm the structural majority of nationalist and conservative forces in Turkish politics. Elections are won in this country right of center.
Within the opposition alliance, the Iyi party in particular, which is trying to attract voters similar to those of the nationalist Sinan Ogan or the MHP, has long been skeptical about the candidacy of the social politician Kilicdaroglu. The debate in the opposition alliance as to which candidate would have had the best chance of success could break out again after the disappointing course of election day.
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