Turkish President Erdogan to Meet Azerbaijani President Aliyev as Thousands Flee Nagorno-Karabakh
STEPANAKERT, Azerbaijan – Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is scheduled to meet with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on Monday following the mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The region, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, experienced a swift military operation by the Azerbaijani military, forcing a ceasefire that has dramatically altered the South Caucasus.
The leadership of the approximately 120,000 Armenians residing in Karabakh told Reuters on Sunday that they did not desire to remain part of Azerbaijan due to fears of persecution and ethnic cleansing. As of Monday morning, over 2,900 individuals from Nagorno-Karabakh had crossed into Armenia, prompting the Armenian government to make urgent preparations for the influx of refugees.
Erdogan’s visit to Azerbaijan’s autonomous Nakhchivan exclave, situated between Armenia, Iran, and Turkey, will primarily focus on discussions surrounding the situation in Karabakh. The Turkish president’s office confirmed that the talks will encompass topics such as bilateral relations, global and regional developments, and the inauguration of a gas pipeline and a modernized military installation in Nakhchivan.
In the Karabakh capital, known as Stepanakert in Armenia and Khankendi in Azerbaijan, residents started leaving on Sunday night, driving towards the border with Armenia. Images captured by Reuters showed numerous cars departing the capital along the Lachin corridor’s mountainous terrain.
The Azerbaijani victory in Karabakh has significantly shifted the delicate power balance in the South Caucasus region, an area marked by diverse ethnicities and the presence of crucial oil and gas pipelines. Leading global powers, including Russia, the United States, Turkey, and Iran, are actively seeking to exert influence in the region.
Nagorno-Karabakh, referred to as Artsakh by Armenians, has endured the domination of various empires throughout history, including the Persians, Turks, Russians, Ottomans, and Soviets. In the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Karabakh became an autonomous region within Azerbaijan. However, the Armenians in the area successfully fought off Azerbaijani control and captured surrounding territories during the First Karabakh War, resulting in tens of thousands of casualties and over a million displaced individuals, primarily Azerbaijanis, between 1988 and 1994.
In 2020, Azerbaijan regained control of significant portions of territory in and around Nagorno-Karabakh through another conflict. Erdogan, who provided military support to Azerbaijan during the 2020 war, expressed his support for Azerbaijan’s recent military operation in Karabakh but denied any involvement in its execution.
Armenia reported over 200 deaths and 400 injuries resulting from the recent Azeri operation, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan accusing Russia of negligence. Pashinyan is currently facing calls to resign from protesters in Yerevan and has raised concerns about potential coup attempts orchestrated by unidentified forces. He has also accused Russian media of engaging in an information war against him.
The United States has expressed deep concern over Azerbaijan’s military operation, which it claims was launched in response to alleged terrorist attacks on Azerbaijani civilians by Karabakh fighters. On Sunday, the Azerbaijani defense ministry declared the confiscation of additional military equipment from Armenian separatists, including rockets, artillery shells, mines, and ammunition.
Russian peacekeepers stationed in Karabakh announced that the fighters had surrendered 1,200 weapons and 130,000 units of ammunition. They also disclosed the delivery of 125 tons of food and 65 tons of fuel to the area. In response to the escalating situation, Armenia has called for the immediate deployment of a United Nations mission to monitor human rights and security in the region.
As the region grapples with the consequences of the military conflict, Erdogan’s meeting with Aliyev holds significant implications for the future trajectory of the South Caucasus. The outcome of their discussions may shape the geopolitical landscape and determine the fate of those affected by the conflict.