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Several weeks before the most important election in modern Turkish history, it is still too early to assess who will win. All signs indicate that the race will continue to be extremely close until Election Day on May 14. It is also possible that the results will not be unequivocal. Chaos may break out, fakes are always a likely possibility and a lot of accusations will come from all sides. In some districts there may be repeat elections, and further conflicts may spill over into street violence.
Repeated general elections are also still a possibility. Another option is that Turkey’s strongest man, President Erdogan, who is fighting for his political life after 21 years of rule and corruption, won the presidential race but will lose the majority in parliament. Such an outcome would mean real governance and administrative chaos.
Erdogan’s nationalist-conservative charm seems to be waning. The economy is groaning under skyrocketing inflation rates, which reached an official 55 percent in February. The devastating earthquakes in the southeast of the country imposed an additional burden amounting to tens of billions. Corruption and graft pervaded all ranks of the country, while the average annual salary is barely 9,000 dollars.
The deficit jumped in January by dozens of percent, reaching new highs since they began collecting data on the matter about forty years ago. The Turkish lira has lost about 60% of its value against the dollar in the last two years. The rule of law has almost collapsed, in accordance with the transition made by Erdogan from the image of the “great reformer” to a dictator. Surveys show that almost 70 percent of Turks have lost faith in the court system.
It seems that senior officials in the military and bureaucracy are preparing for a shock in May. “For the first time in two decades, I will not vote for Erdogan. We are tired of him. There are dozens of officials who think like me,” said recently a senior official in an important government office, appointed to his position by the president. I asked him why it took so long to come to this conclusion but he ignored the question.
In the main opposition faction, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), they say that many in the civil service are already renovating their resumes in preparation for the change. They apparently feel that this may be the end of Erdogan’s show and are trying to improve positions. The numbers also speak for themselves. Weeks before the election, only 3,000 people applied for the electoral list of AKP, Erdogan’s party. About five years ago this number was 8,000.
The polls indicate that although the race for the presidency is expected to be close, the gap against Erdogan is widening. An average of 11 polls conducted in March gave the AKP 32.8 percent of the vote. In the event that the nationalist MHP party, which is in the polls just below the threshold percentage, fails to pass it, Erdogan will lose the majority in parliament. On the other hand, the opposition bloc led by CHP and with the cooperation of the pro-Kurdish party, is expected to win 55.4% of the votes throughout the country. The Reuters news agency reported that the opposition presidential candidate and leader of the CHP party, Kemal Kilicderoulu, leads Erdogan by more than ten percent heading into the election.
Although public opinion polls in Turkey may be a dubious business, with or without them, the reality signals a real threat to the rule of one of the most harmful and extremist leaders in the world.
Burak Bakdil is a Turkish journalist and a fellow at the Middle East Forum Institute. A full version of the column was first published on the Gatestone Institute website.