While Hezbollah celebrates a victory despite the successful Israeli preventive strike in South Lebanon and only a few casualties in Israel, Iran’s retaliation is still pending. Is there still a threat of a regional conflagration?
Smoke and fire on Sunday morning in southern Lebanon.
In Mohammed’s café in the southern Lebanese town of Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, a few men are sitting and smoking. The sun is shining, and white clouds are stuck in the sky. Everything is peaceful – only the blaring of a loudly turned television comes from the window of a neighboring house. Apparently, the news is on a loop.
A few hours earlier, countless loud detonations had shattered the stillness of the night in the hills and valleys around Marjayoun. With allegedly over a hundred planes, the Israeli army had early Sunday morning hunted Hezbollah positions. “It has never been as bad here as it was on the night of Sunday,” says Mohammed. “My entire house shook, the pictures fell from the walls.”
Nasrallah seems satisfied
In fact, Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia engaged in the fiercest exchange of fire since the beginning of the border war in October on the night from Saturday to Sunday. Shortly after the Israeli airstrikes, the Shiite militia then fired hundreds of drones and rockets over into the neighboring country. Some – as the group proudly claims – reached as far as Tel Aviv.
A Hezbollah drone is intercepted by the Israeli missile defense system.
Even though Tel Aviv was not hit – it quickly became clear what many had suspected: The Hezbollah action was the long-awaited retaliation for the death of Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr. Late Sunday afternoon, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah then spoke up and clarified: The revenge has been carried out for now.
Nasrallah, who kept smiling, seemed satisfied. They had attacked an Israeli military intelligence center near Tel Aviv, he said – and thus struck the enemy hard. He mentioned the heavy Israeli attacks only in passing. Only a few launch pads had been destroyed. They should not be overestimated; the Israelis would lie anyway – once again showing their weakness.
Lebanese listen to the speech of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
“An escalation has become less likely”
Hezbollah’s chief is not the only one satisfied with the outcome of the clash. It is also seen as a success in Israel. They dealt Hezbollah a massive blow and preempted a planned major attack, it was said from there. The Israelis denied that an intelligence center was hit. There are also hardly any signs of serious damage.
That both sides are now celebrating a success could have a calming effect on the recently extremely tense situation in the Middle East. “Because Israel was able to successfully fend off the Hezbollah attack, an escalation has become less likely,” explains Israeli security expert Danny Citrinowicz. Now Israel is not forced to respond massively to the attack.
Limited damage: A hit house in Israel after the Hezbollah major attack.
At the same time, Hezbollah can also claim the attack as a victory for itself – as it has conducted a much larger operation than in the past, which also targeted locations in central Israel. The fact that the rockets hardly got through seems to matter little to the militia at the forefront. Nasrallah appeared almost happy that the retaliation strike had finally been carried out.
Iran has no interest in war
In addition to Hezbollah, Iran also vowed revenge after Israel killed Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniya in Tehran almost simultaneously with Shukr’s death in Beirut. For a long time, there was speculation as to whether Iran and the Tehran-supported Lebanese Shiite militia would attack together.
“A joint attack by Iran and Hezbollah was the most dangerous scenario for Israel,” says Iran expert Citrinowicz. A simultaneous major attack would have been more difficult to repel and would have increased the likelihood of a large war in the region.
“The fact that Iran did not attack alongside Hezbollah is an important indication that Tehran has no interest in an extended war,” says Citrinowicz. The former head of the Iran department in the Israeli military intelligence now assumes a limited Iranian retaliation action.
Negotiations over Gaza continue
This aligns with statements from Tehran: just a few days ago, a high-ranking Iranian general suggested that the country would likely postpone its retaliation further. According to media reports, Iran even wants to forgo retaliation altogether if the guns fall silent in Gaza.
The ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip were apparently not adversely affected by the brief escalation at Israel’s northern border. An Israeli delegation, led by Mossad chief David Barnea, planned to proceed to Cairo on Sunday to continue discussions with international mediators.
Hezbollah has long announced that it will cease its attacks as soon as a ceasefire is in effect in the Gaza Strip. Success in the negotiations is the only way to avoid further escalation on other fronts, Citrinowicz also says. “Without a ceasefire in Gaza, we will return at the northern border to a situation that has existed since October 8. Both sides continue to play with fire.”
Hassan, the chicken hunter
However, Hamas and Israel are still far apart in their positions. In Lebanon, however, there was temporary relief on Sunday evening. After all, Nasrallah had personally announced that the country could now breathe again – well aware that many Lebanese were far from eager to see their country stumble into a war.
For now, the great war in Lebanon seems to have been averted: View over the capital Beirut.
His supporters celebrated Hezbollah’s operation as a great success. Others see it less gloriously: After it became known that the militia had also hit a chicken farm during their attack on Israel, some Lebanese mocked Nasrallah online as “Hassan, the chicken hunter.”
Mohammed, the café owner in the border town of Marjayoun, has other worries. “The war is ruining my business,” he says, while clearing away the coffee cups. “And nothing will change in that regard for now.”