Russia continues to move troops to the Ukrainian borders and can launch pinpoint strikes on Ukraine, occupying “key territories” in the country, but a full-scale occupation is unlikely, according to the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Department. “According to our estimates, they (the military of the Russian Federation. – Ed.) will avoid densely populated cities, since a large number of troops will be needed to control them,” said the head of the department, Mikk Marran, during the presentation of the annual report of Estonian intelligence on February 15.
In the document, posted in open access, in particular, a map of objects is published, which, it is alleged, Russia, in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, can attack in the first place. “The report indicates the Ukrainian goals proposed by the Russian intelligence services,” Marran stressed. We are talking about infrastructure facilities, the destruction of which “may interfere with the management, restoration and supply of the Armed Forces and the energy supply of Ukraine,” the document says.
In addition, according to Estonian intelligence, hostilities may intensify in the territories of the self-proclaimed “DPR” and “LPR”. Such an escalation is “highly likely,” Marran said, because it would allow Russia to deny its involvement in the hostilities, allowing it to avoid Western sanctions.
If Russian aggression in Ukraine succeeds, the Kremlin may increase pressure on the Baltic countries in the coming years, the Estonian intelligence chief added, stressing that “the threat of war has become Putin’s main political tool.”
Estonian intelligence is aware of about ten Russian military units heading towards the Ukrainian border, which already has about 170,000 Russian soldiers.
The United States and NATO do not fix the withdrawal of Russian troops from the borders of Ukraine
On February 15, the Russian Ministry of Defense, after a weeks-long period of tension, announced the start of a withdrawal of troops from the borders with Ukraine. However, the US government does not yet see any signs of a cessation of Russian military activity on the border with Ukraine.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also sees no signs of a withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukrainian border. “On the contrary, Russia seems to be continuing to build up its military presence,” the head of the alliance said on February 16 on the sidelines of a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels.
See also:
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A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
The collapse of the Soviet Union and the creation of the CIS
In December 1991, Ukraine, Russia and Belarus documented the collapse of the USSR. Moscow apparently hoped to maintain influence through the CIS and cheap gas supplies. But it turned out differently. The Russian Federation and Belarus created a union state, Ukraine increasingly looked to the West. In the photo: Leonid Kravchuk, Nursultan Nazarbayev, Boris Yeltsin and Stanislav Shushkevich during the official founding of the CIS in Almaty.
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A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Legacy of the USSR and the Budapest Memorandum
Ukraine inherited from the USSR almost a million strong army and the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal in the world. Kiev refused the missiles, handing them over to Russia in exchange for economic assistance and security guarantees (Budapest Memorandum of 1994). While the West did not reciprocate Kiev and was not going to integrate it into its structures, the reaction of the Russian Federation was restrained. In the photo: Russian and US leaders Boris Yeltsin and Bill Clinton.
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A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Cracks in Post-Soviet Friendship: Tuzla Conflict
The first major diplomatic crisis between Moscow and Kiev occurred under President Putin. In the fall of 2003, Russia suddenly began building a dam in the Kerch Strait towards the Ukrainian island of Tuzla. Kiev considered this an attempt to redistribute borders. The conflict was resolved after a personal meeting of the presidents. Construction was stopped, but the first cracks appeared on the facade of friendly relations between the two countries.
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A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Orange Revolution 2004
In the presidential elections in Ukraine in 2004, the Russian Federation actively supported the pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych, but the Orange Revolution prevented him from winning amid accusations of fraud. Pro-Western politician Viktor Yushchenko became president. His victory became the starting point for changes in the policy of the Russian Federation, designed to prevent what Moscow calls “color revolutions.”
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A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Shutting off Ukraine’s “gas valve” in the 2000s
During Viktor Yushchenko’s presidency, the Russian Federation twice shut off Ukraine’s “gas valve” – in 2006 and 2009, which led to interruptions in transit supplies to Europe. In the photo: a Gazprom employee at the Sudzha gas measuring station, 200 meters from the Ukrainian border, Kursk Region, Russia, 2009.
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A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
The promise of NATO membership
The key event happened in 2008. At the NATO summit in Bucharest, US President George W. Bush tried to get Ukraine and Georgia to receive a Membership Action Plan (MAP). Putin sharply objected, making it clear that he did not fully recognize the independence of Ukraine. As a result, Germany and France blocked Bush’s plan. Ukraine and Georgia were promised NATO membership, but no date.
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A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Ukraine’s course towards the European Union
It was not possible to move quickly towards joining NATO, and Ukraine set a course for economic rapprochement with the EU. In the summer of 2013, the Russian Federation began to exert massive pressure on Kiev, almost cutting off Ukrainian exports at the border. The Yanukovych government has suspended preparations for signing an association agreement with Brussels. Soon protests began in Ukraine, in February 2014 Yanukovych fled to Russia.
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A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Russian annexation of Crimea
A power vacuum emerged in Ukraine, in March 2014 Russia annexed Crimea. This was a turning point, the beginning of an undeclared war. Pictured: Russian military in Crimea (Simferopol, March 2014).
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A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
War in Donbass
At the same time, Russian and local paramilitary structures provoked an outbreak of separatism in the Donbass, “people’s republics” were proclaimed in Donetsk and Lugansk, which were led by people who had come from the Russian Federation in unmarked uniforms. Kiev reacted slowly, waiting for the presidential elections at the end of May 2014, and only then decided on a large-scale use of force.
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A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Birth of the Normandy Format
In early June 2014, in France, at events marking the 70th anniversary of the Allied landings in Normandy, newly elected President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko met for the first time with his Russian counterpart Putin through the mediation of the leaders of Germany and France. This is how the “Norman format” was born.
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A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
“Ilovaisky cauldron”
In the summer of 2014, the Ukrainian army began to push back the separatists, but at the end of August, Russia, according to Kiev, used its army on a large scale in the Donbass. Moscow denies this. The peak of the conflict was the defeat of the Ukrainian forces near Ilovaisk. The war along the entire front line ended with the signing of a ceasefire in Minsk in September, which was quickly broken.
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A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Positional war continues
In early 2015, the separatists went on a broad offensive. Kiev accused Moscow of using an unmarked army, the Russian Federation denied everything. Ukrainian forces were defeated near the city of Debaltseve. Then, with the mediation of Germany and France, “Minsk-2” was signed, an agreement that still remains the main document for resolving the conflict. None of its points has been fully implemented.
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A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
The concentration of Russian troops on the border of Ukraine
In 2021, there was a new aggravation. Russia twice, in spring and autumn, drew up its troops to the western borders. Ukrainian and Western intelligence reports about the threat of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. To defuse the situation, a series of international negotiations took place in the West. However, the Russian Federation demands guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO and lets know that it is not going to withdraw troops yet.
Author: Roman Goncharenko
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