The application for EU membership has been signed, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has done so in Kyiv with media attention. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen gives the impression that she would like to – what to do? Driven by emotions and overwhelmed by the circumstances, initiate an express recording? Candidate status and admission procedures would be dispensed with, instead the aspirants would simply be waved through and the 27 member states would be convinced that a politics of symbolism is the order of the day. And anything but a renunciation of politics. Anyone who does not support this is open to accusations of stabbing Ukraine in the back and doing Russia a favor.
A look at Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Bosnia shows how much the EU would fall on its feet to create such a precedent. Without exception, EU applicants who have been circling in the queue for years and have no realistic prospects of accession. It would be difficult to convey to them that Ukraine is being granted an expedited procedure that has been denied them for so long. So far, keeping these aspirants at bay has had a lot to do with the need to keep a confederation of states like the EU able to act, instead of having the opposite effect by overextending it.
One thing is beyond question: Ukraine’s admission promises the EU permanent crisis mode. This step would guarantee to be constantly engaged in the Ukraine conflict and on a collision course with Russia. The comparison with Turkey suggests itself. Apart from other reasons, a vote for this candidate was subject to reservations, not least due to geopolitical considerations. The EU would have traded common borders with Syria, Iraq and Iran, Armenia and Georgia. The close contact with an unparalleled war and conflict zone beckoned her. If there were an admission bonus for Ukraine, it would hardly be any different in principle. The specific weight and immediate interests of this country would prevent it from making decisions in the EU against its will. It would be illegal to give Ukraine a majority for moral reasons, and impossible anyway because of the unanimity principle that applies to many projects. The EU seems well advised to think ahead.