“Europe has become more important for Taiwan”

2024-10-16 11:15:00

Dnever seen before: the former Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen, on a European tour, is in Paris and made it known on social media by publishing an image of herself in front of the Louvre pyramids. He will meet parliamentarians from the France-Taiwan group and this evening in the French capital a reception will also bring together personalities who support Taiwan.

Before that, she had been the “guest star” of a geopolitical forum in Prague, and will conclude this European tour with a historic turning point for Taiwan, a visit to the European Parliament, where she will be received on Thursday by MEPs whom they had met for some during the visits carried out starting from November 2021.

Although Tsai travels as a former president and therefore presumably as a private individual, her visits to European capitals illustrate the spectacular progress in relations between the European Union and Taiwan. As disputes with China over electric vehicles and cognac increase, and Beijing once again threatens the island with blockade maneuvers, rapprochement with Taiwan is essential both to diversify European partnerships in the Indo-Pacific and to influence the stability of the region.

Author of a new book on relations between Taiwan and Europe (Partners in peace: why Europe and Taiwan matter to each otherPalgrave Macmillan, September 2024, not translated into French), the Hungarian researcher Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy takes stock and the prospects of an increasingly strategic partnership.

The point: Until then, former Taiwanese leaders were more focused on Beijing or Washington. Why is former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen making this visit to Europe?

Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy: Europe has become more important for Taiwan. Relations with Prague, the first stop on this visit, seem to be the strongest. This follows exchanges during the fight against the pandemic, but also threats coming from the rapprochement between China and Russia. Taiwanese benefit from greater support and political courage. In the case of the Czech Republic and Lithuania, even directly from the governments, which almost compete to be Taiwan’s best friends in Europe.

Why are Eastern Europeans at the forefront of rapprochement with Taiwan?

The relationship has existed since the 1990s, but without diplomatic recognition. They got stronger 4 years ago. Taiwan has donated masks, protective equipment and ventilators to Europe, particularly Poland, Slovakia and Lithuania. The Czech Republic received ventilators and Taipei even moved mask assembly lines there, leading to the first joint cooperation in epidemic prevention between Taiwan and a European country. These countries gave maximum visibility to their relations with Taipei and ultimately helped Taiwan by sending vaccines when it was lacking.

For that? Since Eastern European countries had experienced a lot of frustration with China following the experience of the 17 + 1 format, created in 2012 with the idea of ​​developing infrastructure projects, this cooperation format did not work. At least from the point of view of Eastern Europeans: the Chinese took advantage of this to expand their presence in the region. Ten years later, China has changed and has failed to keep its promises. Sensing the opportunity, Tsai, during her eight years in power, worked to enhance Taiwan’s relations with Europe. Some European leaders drew a lot of respect from it. Now he is trying to capitalize on this.

Tsai will have meetings in France and will be received for the first time at the European Parliament. Even in the West, are European elites more receptive to a rapprochement with Taiwan?

Parliamentary diplomacy was the primary means of accessing these European elites. The European Parliament has shown courage, expressing its support for Taiwan, especially with the INGE delegation led by Raphaël Glucksmann, who visited Taipei in November 2021. But for her visit to Europe, Tsai Ing-wen cannot go where she wants , but only where it will be welcomed. The EU-Taiwan friendship group chaired by Michael Gahler had already opened its doors to him in the past. As for Paris, Taiwan understands very well that if there is any European country involved in the Indo-Pacific, it is France.

What is the former Taiwanese leader looking for in Europe? Does he still have an official role?

Neither current President Lai Ching-te nor his Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim are capable of doing what Tsai is doing, with the Taiwanese executive unable to make official visits to Europe. He does what he couldn’t do before.

Even though that’s what everyone claims, it’s hard to think of her as just a private person. Since his election in 2016, he has personally built this new relationship between Taiwan and the EU. When he left the presidency, he certainly passed his legacy on to his successor. But she continues her work, even if she is only a former president. It has weight, he knows it very well. Furthermore, neither the current president Lai Ching-te nor his vice-president Hsiao Bi-khim are able to do what she is doing, since the Taiwanese executive cannot make official visits to Europe. He does what he couldn’t do before. And it’s really important to her. Because he made real friends with Europeans.

Beijing relaunches its maneuvers around the island. Is there a connection with Tsai’s visit? How is the EU responding to these threats?

Although Tsai’s trip was announced in advance on these dates, these exercises were primarily a reaction to President Lai Ching-te’s National Day speech on October 10. From Beijing there is nothing unexpected. These reactions from Beijing are systematic. Beijing’s goal is to intimidate Taiwan. Even if Lai made an even less decisive speech, only on the island’s internal affairs, without mentioning relations with China, the problem would remain that he is a president of the Democratic Progressive Party, which Beijing considers pro-independence.

And, even more generally, the root of the problem is that this is a democratically elected government. The Kuomintang, China’s nationalist party, may have a reputation for being more reasonable and not “provoking” Beijing, but it is not certain that China, under Xi Jinping, would not be aggressive towards it, as is the case throughout the region.

Can Europe do something to dissuade China from threatening Taiwan?

For Beijing, relations with Europe are very important, especially when China has economic problems. Beijing does not want to worsen these already difficult relations. If Europe understood its importance, it could help stabilize the relationship with China. Member States should be more united and send the same message that there will be serious consequences. Regarding the strategic friendship between China and Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. Especially because there are now tools to apply pressure, such as the sanctions implemented against Moscow in 2022. But Europe has its limits. The United States will act, driven by its regional ambitions and competition with China…

The Chinese are speaking more and more openly about the blockade during their maneuvers. What could Europe, in the absence of significant military assets in the Indo-Pacific, do in the event of a blockade around Taiwan?

The most likely risk is not so much a total blockade, which would constitute an act of war and provoke a dangerous response for China, but rather a targeted “quarantine”, with the blockade of some ports and the deployment of coast guards. Beijing wants to demonstrate that it can really control Taiwan, the strait, maritime and air traffic in the area. Trade would suffer and responding would be difficult, because it would be a hybrid form of intimidation, in the gray zone, without crossing the red line of war.

This could force Taiwan to negotiate its relations with China, or even its annexation. This is exactly what China is practicing around Kinmen and Matsu islands and other Taiwanese ports. What should Europe do if Taiwan’s southern ports – where two-thirds of the island’s maritime trade passes – were cut off from the world? The blocked ships would not only be Japanese or American, but also European or destined for Europe. This is also why Tsai is visiting France. Because it is the European country most exposed to a scenario of this kind which would affect the entire region.