2023-10-31 16:12:12
By Le Figaro with AFP
Published 5 hours ago, Updated 3 hours ago
The report notes a slowdown in the growth of LNG demand. JeanLuc / stock.adobe.com
The authors fear “a significant gap between expected LNG demand in Europe and new regasification capacities under construction and planned.”
Would the European Union have had its eyes bigger than its stomach? Europe could find itself with oversized liquefied natural gas (LNG) import capacities compared to the moderate increase in gas demand, warns think tank IEEFA (Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis) in a report released Tuesday. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe has fielded a total of36.5 billion cubic meters of new capacity»; et «106 billion cubic meters of additional capacity» of LNG imports are planned by 2030, which would bring the total LNG import capacity in Europe to 406 billion cubic meters, according to this report.
Strong growth which ultimately causes IEEFA to fear “a significant gap between expected LNG demand in Europe and new regasification capacities under construction and planned“. The report predicts that European demand for LNG “will not exceed 150 billion cubic meters in 2030”, which would result in a potential discrepancy of “nearly 256 billion cubic meters of unused capacity“. Based on gas consumption in Europe in 2023, the IEEFA lowered its LNG demand forecast compared to the projections it had previously established.
LNG imports by Europe (EU, Turkey and UK) amounted to some “125 billion cubic meters between January and September 2023, an increase of 68% compared to the same period in 2021, but only around 4% more compared to the period in 2022», Indicates the report, which therefore notes a slowdown in the growth of demand, after a surge in the months following the start of the war in February 2022.
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While some 19.5 billion cubic meters of new capacity were put into service in Europe in 2023 (after an additional 17 billion in 2022), imports increased by only 4.8 billion compared to the previous year , says the IEEFA. It indicates that the trend is even towards lower import levels since July 2023 compared to 2022: “a significant decline occurred in September 2023, when LNG imports were 18% lower than volumes imported in September 2022», Supports the organization in its report. “Between January and September 2023, the average utilization rate of EU LNG import terminals was 58%», assures the IEEFA.
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