Does Iran Really Want to Save the 2015 Nuclear Deal? Western capitals seem increasingly skeptical. Due in particular to Tehran’s repeated refusal to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
A complicated last straight line
Concluded on July 14, 2015 between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, United States, France, United Kingdom, Russia) plus Germany, the Iranian nuclear agreement has been torpedoed by the US withdrawal in 2018, under Donald Trump, and the reinstatement of US sanctions.
Launched in April 2021 in Vienna, negotiations aim to revive the 2015 agreement. But skepticism seems stronger than ever in Western capitals about Tehran’s good faith. “At the beginning of August, after a year and a half of negotiations, the JCPOA coordinator (1) presented a set of final texts which would allow Iran to once again fulfill its obligations and the United States to return to the agreement »recall the French, British and German governments in a joint press release published on Saturday.
“In this final package, the coordinator made additional changes that pushed us to the limits of our flexibility”they point out. “Unfortunately, Iran has decided not to seize this decisive diplomatic opportunity” et “continues to escalate its nuclear program far beyond what could be plausibly justified on civil grounds”regret London, Paris and Berlin.
The lack of cooperation with the IAEA at the center of tensions
Tehran’s refusal to cooperate with the IAEA is at the center of the tensions. Thursday, September 8, Iran once again swept aside an agency report questioning the peaceful nature of Tehran’s nuclear program.
A report ” unfounded “, Iranian Atomic Energy Organization spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi said in a statement. The day before, the IAEA had notably deplored “lack of progress” on the issue of three undeclared sites, where traces of uranium had been discovered in 2019.
The IAEA has also deplored the Iranian decision to remove 27 surveillance cameras from various sites, calling on Tehran “to meet its legal obligations” and to provide “technically credible explanations”. “Our position remains clear and unchanged. Iran must cooperate fully and immediately with the IAEA, in good faith.”reported Paris, London and Paris.
Iran, a “Threshold State”
According to many experts, Iran is today a “threshold state”, that is to say capable of making a bomb, even if Tehran denies any intention to do so. Its stocks of enriched uranium now exceed more than 19 times the limit authorized by the 2015 agreement (202.8 kg), with nearly 4,000 kg.
Among these reserves, the Islamic Republic has in particular 55.6 kg of uranium enriched to 60% (against 43.1 kg previously), a threshold close to the 90% necessary for the development of an atomic weapon.
In the meantime, neither party seems willing to give up the 2015 agreement definitively. Or to give in. The IAEA has made it known that it does not intend to give up its investigation into traces of enriched uranium found at three undeclared sites, as requested by Tehran.