2024-11-18 06:25:00
What does the Ibex 35 do?
EuroStoxx 50 futures show moderate increases. The Ibex 35 managed to close last week above 11,600 points, despite losing 11,300 points intraday. He added 110 points on Friday alone. Investors await relevant data such as inflation in the Eurozone, Germany’s GDP or Nvidia’s results in the coming days.
What are other stock markets doing?
Chinese and Hong Kong stocks rose today after Chinese regulators urged listed companies to raise share prices through ”market value management”, while October data showed some signs of possible stabilization in the the Chinese economy.
Wall Street closed in the red on Friday and the selective S&P 500 ended its worst week since early September as investors lost hope that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will make another rate cut soon. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that economic data did not encourage lowering rates too quickly, undercutting investors’ hopes of another rate cut in December.
The keys of the day
- The Bank of Spain today advances the debt of the Public Administration in the ninth month of the year.
- The president of the government, Pedro Sánchez, participates this Monday in the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) with very divided positions on the world geopolitical situation and in which the host president, Lula da Silva, promotes a new global tax for billionaires, an initiative supported by Spain.
- In Europe, Spain and the Eurozone’s trade balance for September will be released at the beginning of the week.
- Today is the last day on which investors will be able to purchase Cellnex shares with the right to receive the dividend of 0.046 euros per share that the company will pay from the share premium reserve on November 21st.
What do the analysts say?
From Renta 4 they underline that the markets ”continue to evaluate the possible implications of the policies that will be adopted by the Donald Trump administration”. They point out that “there have been relevant movements in other types of activities. The most notable is that seen in the price of different cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin appreciating 17% on the week to $89,695, and even more pronounced increases in other less relevant cryptocurrencies. On the opposite front, gold, whose price fell by 4.7% to 2,568 dollars an ounce, far from approx. $2,800 an ounce where it was trading just two weeks ago.” On the other hand, “the evolution of sovereign debt yields is also noteworthy, and it also responds to the market’s reading of the implications of possible changes in the course of the economic policies of the future American administration. In this context, the profitability of T-Bonds rose by 15 points to 4.45% in anticipation of fewer interest rate cuts by the Fed in the face of policies that could tend to increase inflationary pressures (duties that limit the international trade, delocalisation of production in the country, difficulty in accessing the job market for immigrant labour).
Christiaan Tuntono, senior Asia Pacific economist at Allianz Global Investors: “We believe a second Trump term could pose a significant challenge to macroeconomic conditions in China and the rest of Asia. According to his campaign proposals, the United States is likely to adopt highly protectionist trade policies against China, which would also indirectly impact the rest of Asia. While Trump’s threats, such as imposing tariffs of 60% on Chinese imports and 10% on the rest of the world, could be part of a negotiation strategy, the uncertainty they would generate would be enough to disrupt global trade flows . If these tariffs are finally implemented, they would have a major impact on Chinese exports to the United States and Asia’s foreign trade for years to come.”
What is the evolution of debt, currencies and commodities?
The euro remains at 1.0539 dollars.
Brent oil, the benchmark in Europe, is above $71 a barrel.
The yield on the 10-year Spanish bond rises to 3.051%.
Stock Markets – Currencies - Debt - Interest Rates – Commodities
How do recent fluctuations in the Ibex 35 correlate with movements in U.S. financial markets?
Interview between Time.news Editor and Economic Expert Dr. Laura Moreno
Time.news Editor: Welcome, Dr. Moreno! It’s great to have you here to discuss the latest movements in the financial markets, especially in light of the recent fluctuations we’ve observed in the Ibex 35 and other global indices.
Dr. Laura Moreno: Thank you! It’s a pleasure to be here and share insights on the current economic landscape.
Editor: Let’s dive right into the Ibex 35. It managed to close last week above 11,600 points despite a dip during the trading session. What do you think contributed to this resilience in the Spanish index?
Dr. Moreno: The recent bounce in the Ibex 35 can be attributed to several factors. A significant one is the overall optimism surrounding the Eurozone, which seems to be stabilizing. Investors are also closely monitoring key economic data that could provide insights into inflation trends and GDP growth, particularly from Germany. There’s a cautious optimism building as these indicators are expected to influence market sentiment significantly.
Editor: That makes sense. Speaking of global influences, we saw Wall Street close in the red recently as investors recalibrated their expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts. How are these sentiments impacting European markets?
Dr. Moreno: The situation in the U.S. is indeed affecting global markets, including Europe. The Fed’s decision to maintain rates has sent ripples across the financial landscape, leading to increased volatility. European investors are watching closely, as many of them have tied their expectations to U.S. monetary policy. A tight Fed policy can lead to reduced liquidity and may dampen investor confidence in Europe as well.
Editor: And how do you see the situation in Asia impacting these Western markets? We’ve seen positive movements in Chinese and Hong Kong stocks recently due to government measures to stabilize and uplift market prices.
Dr. Moreno: Absolutely. China’s recent push for “market value management” has created a wave of optimism. If the Chinese economy shows signs of recovery, this could stabilize global supply chains and bolster investor confidence in various sectors. We know that Asia often leads trends, so positive developments there can have a favorable spillover effect on European and U.S. markets.
Editor: Meanwhile, the situation regarding cryptocurrencies is intriguing. Bitcoin’s dramatic rise this past week caught the attention of many investors. What do you think is driving this resurgence?
Dr. Moreno: The cryptocurrency market is notoriously volatile, and this week’s 17% increase in Bitcoin can be linked to a mix of factors, including speculative trading and a renewed interest in digital assets as alternatives to traditional investments. However, investors should tread carefully, as sudden spikes in cryptocurrency often come alongside potential uncertainties.
Editor: On the flip side, gold experienced a notable decline. Is there a correlation between these movements in cryptocurrencies and the fall in gold prices?
Dr. Moreno: Yes, there is often an inverse relationship between gold and cryptocurrencies. When investors gravitate towards riskier assets like Bitcoin, capital tends to flow out of safe-haven investments like gold. The current market sentiment suggests that many are opting for the potential high rewards of cryptos rather than the stable, albeit lower returns of gold.
Editor: Shifting gears to the political landscape, we have the G20 summit taking place with key discussions on global taxation being led by Brazil’s President Lula da Silva. How might this initiative impact the markets, especially with Spain’s support for it?
Dr. Moreno: The G20 discussions on a new global tax for billionaires could reshape fiscal policies in many countries, including Spain. If this initiative gains traction, it might lead to increased public spending and investment in social projects, which could stimulate growth. However, markets may initially react with volatility as they assess the implications of higher taxation on corporate profits.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Moreno, for your insightful analysis. It seems we’re navigating through a dynamic landscape, and we’ll have to keep a close eye on how these various factors unfold in the coming weeks.
Dr. Moreno: Thank you for having me! It will certainly be interesting to watch how these narratives evolve and impact global markets.