EXCLUSIVE SURVEY – The fall in the birth rate hardly alarms the French

2024-02-01 17:29:03

Should we be worried about the decline in the birth rate? No, for four out of ten French people, reveals an Elabe survey for “Les Echos” and the Institut Montaigne. Only 20% of those surveyed consider it “very much” a problem and 40% “somewhat” a problem. However, births still fell by almost 7% in 2023 compared to the previous year. But this does not seem to cause much alarm in France.

The decline in the birth rate, which has been going on for more than ten years now, worries older people more – 70% of those aged 65 or over think this decline is problematic – as well as adults who already have children. And it is on the right that we find the most alarmists. Some 81% of Republican voters are worried about the drop in births, as are 76% of supporters of the presidential majority.

Discrepancy with public opinion

However, the subject concerns even the highest levels of the State. During his press conference in mid-January, the Head of State spoke of the need for “demographic rearmament” and announced the upcoming creation of “birth leave” in place of the current parental leave. . It will be shorter – six months instead of a maximum of three years – and above all better paid, with a ceiling of 1,800 euros per month, according to the first avenues mentioned by the executive.

“There is a real gap between the president’s alarmist speech, the findings of experts and economists, and the perception of the French on the issue,” observes Vincent Thibault, director of studies at Elabe.

However, those questioned are rather favorable to the measures put forward by the government: 63% say they approve of the implementation of this new birth leave, and 15% are even very favorable to it. Here again, the oldest and wealthiest receive this proposal particularly well. A small majority of French people (55%) say they are in favor of the generalization of a fertility exam at age 25 covered by Social Security, as proposed by Emmanuel Macron in mid-January.

Economy and worrying futures

To explain the sagging of the birth curve, the answers converge. The people interviewed mentioned two main factors: economic difficulties and the crisis of purchasing power on the one hand (54%), and the fact of not wanting to see a child grow up in today’s world (ecology, war, Covid, etc.) on the other (51%). Elements often highlighted by demographers since the health crisis in 2020.

“Economic difficulties, mainly linked to inflation and housing, combined with growing concerns about the climate crisis form a bad cocktail which weighs heavily on the family plans of young households,” analyzes the Institut Montaigne. Far from the arguments recently put forward by the government, such as the decline in family policy, or the problems of infertility.

But above all, this study shows to what extent the subject is an intimate sphere for the French. For 63% of them, it is not the role of the State to give an injunction to have children. “More than a third of the population considers this government speech to be intrusive. Especially since the proposed policy does not respond to the economic concerns raised by the French,” underlines Vincent Thibault. “They want financial support, but don’t need to be told what to do,” he summarizes.