2024-09-29 20:06:27
The number of unemployed people in Germany fell slightly in September – but there is no relief in sight. On the contrary: expert Holger Schäfer warns of a “dangerous situation.”
Due to a weak autumn recovery on the labor market, the number of unemployed people in Germany fell only slightly in September compared to the previous month – by 66,000 to 2.806 million people. That’s 179,000 more than at the same time last year, the federal agency said.
Due to its persistently weak economy, Germany is heading towards the three million unemployed mark. The CEO of the Federal Employment Agency, Andrea Nahles, assumes that this sound barrier could be broken in the next six months if no decisive economic stimulus comes.
But what exactly do these numbers mean? And how does the shortage of skilled workers fit into this? t-online spoke to labor market economist Holger Schäfer about this.
t-online: Mr. Schäfer, the number of unemployed fell slightly in September, at least compared to August. So things aren’t looking so bad on the job market?
Holger Schäfer: Yes, and yes. The situation is even worse than it initially suggests.
Unemployment always falls in September – this is called the autumn revival. But seasonally adjusted unemployment has risen by 17,000. That’s not a little. The number of unemployed has been increasing by 10,000 to 20,000 every month since the beginning of the year. The labor market is far from the highs of the 2000s. But all the progress made since 2015 is now lost.
Andrea Nahles now expects there to be three million unemployed, probably next spring. Do you think that’s realistic?
It would be possible. Unemployment will also rise slightly in 2025.
Holger Schäfer is a senior economist for employment and unemployment at the employer-oriented Institute of German Economics in Cologne. He studied economics at the University of Bremen and has worked for the institute since 2000. Schäfer regularly researches and publishes on topics related to the labor market.
What is the labor market currently suffering from?
Primarily due to an economic weakness. There aren’t that many layoffs at the moment.
We cannot measure layoffs directly, but relevant indicators do not show any abnormalities. However, the situation is different for new hires.
The number of newly reported vacancies is at a low. Given the poor future prospects, companies are hiring fewer people. People who are looking for work, be it because a contract has expired or are looking for a new career, are currently finding it difficult to find a job.
Which sectors does this primarily affect?
Construction, trade and industry. In the latter sector, particularly few temporary workers are hired. In addition, there are only a few exceptional areas that are still looking for staff: public administration, health and social services. So more government-related jobs. Employment is declining in electricity-intensive sectors where there is a deep structural change.
At the same time, many industries lack skilled workers. How does this fit with current unemployment?
At first glance, this is actually a paradox. At second glance, the apparent contradiction can be quickly explained. In short: the vacancies in companies do not match the people who are looking for a job.
This is what you have to do.
Although the number of open jobs is declining slightly, it is still at a high level overall. This shows that companies are generally hiring fewer people. But they can’t find anyone for the positions they want and need to fill. This is because the unemployed have different, possibly lower qualifications than those required for the positions.
Essentially, unemployment would be much higher if there were no shortage of skilled workers, right?
Without a shortage of skilled workers, a shrinking economy – like in the early 2000s – would have led to major upheavals. The weak economy is currently not having such a dramatic impact on the labor market. The demographic development partly compensates for the crisis. The immigration of skilled workers also helps.
The generation of so-called baby boomers is retiring, but at the same time there are not as many workers coming along. This demographic development is not positive.