New COVID Vaccine Set to Launch Next Month Amidst Declining Demand
A new COVID vaccine is set to be released next month, however, health experts and analysts predict that it will be met with lukewarm reception. This comes as hospitalizations from “Eris,” a variant of the Omicron form of the coronavirus, continue to rise across the country.
Despite hopes that Americans will embrace the new shot, demand for the vaccine has significantly dropped since 2021 when it was first made available. More than 240 million people in the U.S., or 73% of the population, have received at least one shot. However, by the fall of 2022, when most people had either contracted COVID or been vaccinated, fewer than 50 million people opted to get the shots.
Starting next month, healthcare providers and pharmacies such as CVS Health will offer the updated vaccine to combat the Omicron variant. However, they will be facing declining concern about the virus, as well as fatigue and skepticism about the effectiveness of the vaccine.
According to Ashley Kirzinger, Director of Survey Methodology at the Kaiser Family Foundation, public health officials will need to convince the American public that COVID is still a risk in order to see a majority of adults getting the annual vaccines.
KFF surveys earlier this year found that one of the main reasons vaccinated people gave for not getting annual shots was that they believed they were already protected from the virus due to previous shots or infections.
COVID-19 vaccine makers have adjusted their expectations for this fall’s vaccination campaign. Pfizer, the largest maker of mRNA shots with BioNTech, recently warned that it might need to cut jobs if the campaign does not do well. Moderna also acknowledged that demand could be as low as 50 million shots. Last year, Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccine sales totaled $56 billion globally, while analysts predict sales of around $20 billion for this year.
Jefferies analyst Michael Yee does not believe that this year’s fall campaign will reach the numbers seen last year due to the decreased concern about COVID.
The COVID public health emergency officially ended in May, and the government has largely handed the duty of vaccinating Americans over to the private sector. Over 1.1 million people in the United States have died from COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
CDC Director Mandy Cohen expects the shots to be authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and recommended by the CDC and rolled out in the third or fourth week of September. Like the annual flu shot, the COVID shots from Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Novavax are designed to match the variant believed to be circulating this fall.
COVID-19 related hospitalizations have increased more than 40% from recent lows in June but are still more than 90% below the peak levels seen during the January 2022 Omicron outbreak, according to CDC data.
Some doctors suggest that the annual shots should be targeted at the elderly and other high-risk individuals who are most likely to have severe outcomes if they contract COVID-19. Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious diseases specialist at Vanderbilt University and a liaison to the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, mentioned that the ACIP could make a weaker recommendation for younger, healthier people, which may impact the demand for the vaccine.
The CDC has recommended children aged 6 and older receive a single dose of last year’s updated vaccine. Dr. David Boulware, an infectious diseases specialist at the University of Minnesota, emphasized that research he has published shows people who receive booster shots experience less severe symptoms for a shorter duration of illness.
As the fall campaign approaches, health officials will need to address declining demand and convince the public of the continued risk posed by COVID in order to encourage widespread vaccination.