The Civil Society Development Fund (FORGO) predicted the distribution of votes between parties based on the results of the Duma elections. In doing so, the experts relied on the data of electoral statistics and the assessments of their colleagues. The head of the fund, Konstantin Kostin, told RG about the main trends in the 2021 elections.
According to the consensus forecast of FORGO, the result of “United Russia” will be in the range of 42-46% of the vote, the Communist Party – 17-19%, the Liberal Democratic Party – 11-13%, “Fair Russia – For the Truth” – 7-9%.
United Russia is solving its political problem, believes Konstantin Kostin. The party, of course, will have to pay with the loss of a part of the electorate and for the negativity against the background of the pandemic, and for a number of unpopular decisions. As a result, United Russia may lose 7-10% compared to the 2016 elections. “Nevertheless, it will retain a majority in the State Duma and, with a high degree of probability, a constitutional majority,” Kostin believes. requests of large social groups and carries out a large-scale mobilization of its supporters. ” As for the constitutional majority for United Russia, its fate will mainly depend on the results in single-mandate constituencies, as well as on how many parties that overcome the five percent barrier will gain, the expert recalled. The situation is complicated by the fact that in a large number of single-mandate constituencies there is a fairly competitive campaign, the candidates are very close.
The results of other parliamentary parties could have been better. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation missed the chance to reach an all-time high during this campaign, Kostin said. It would seem that the agenda worked for the communists. “But the campaign was carried out by the party extremely indistinctly, on the old slogans,” the expert explained. Kostin recalled that the leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Gennady Zyuganov, has not yet participated in the debate. According to FORGO, the Communist Party is likely to repeat the results of 2011, while at the start of the campaign, many analysts gave much more optimistic forecasts.
“A Just Russia – For Truth” now definitely remain in the State Duma – and in fact, before experts doubted whether “Spravorassy” would be able to maintain their parliamentary status, Kostin recalled. “The main task has been solved, and over the next five years they will have the opportunity to introduce new politicians to the voter, develop a program, and build up the political infrastructure,” he added.
The LDPR, as they say, will take its toll: FORGO experts do not expect a sharp surge in votes. “It seems that Vladimir Volfovich got a little bored: there were no breakthrough slogans and decisions, there was no super-bright memorable participation in the debates,” Kostin believes. “The party carried out a rather inertial campaign. , this season will not come true. “
As for the prospects of the parties not represented in parliament, the chances for a Duma, according to the FORGO, are for the “New People” and the “Party of Pensioners”. Their range of votes is 3.5 to 5%. Of the others, more than 3% can get Yabloko.
Everything will depend on the activity in the last week, noted Konstantin Kostin. Thus, “New People” share the electorate with “Yabloko”, but on the whole, the “People” campaign, according to the expert, is more energetic and interesting. “They made good use of debates, political advertising. They managed to build communication with the voter,” he said.
The possible success of another extra-parliamentary player – the “Party of Pensioners” – in FORGO is associated with the fact that its campaign was initially built on good human intonations. “There are 40 million pensioners in the country, the parliamentary quartet is fighting for this social group, almost all parties are on the left side of the spectrum, but the Party of Pensioners still managed to be remembered and stand out,” the head of FORGO stated.
Even if these parties do not manage to get into the State Duma, then the other proposed scenario is also not bad for the political system. “After all, at least three parties have a chance to receive state funding (now for this you need to overcome the 3% barrier. – Note” RG “) and the opportunity to take an active part in regional campaigns in order to develop a base of support for participation in the elections in 2026, – explained Kostin “Regardless of whether the newcomers get into the Duma or not, the task of updating the political system will be solved.”
Regardless of whether newcomers enter the Duma or not, the task of updating the political system will be solved
The experts’ forecasts were based on the data of all-Russian initiative opinion polls of three companies. First, the VTsIOM poll, which was conducted on September 6-8 with a sample of 4,000 respondents. Method – by phone and bypassing apartments, the error does not exceed 2.5%. In addition, we took into account the data of a telephone survey of 1200 respondents “Insomar”, which was conducted on September 8 (the error does not exceed 2.9%) and FOM, which was conducted on September 3-5 by the method of interviews at the place of residence among 1500 respondents (error – 3.8% ).
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