2023-11-28 11:52:06
Flood in Saint Louis, USA – PICRYL.COM
MADRID, 28 Nov. (EUROPA PRESS) –
The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation increase exponentially with global warmingaccording to a new study.
Analysis by researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) shows that most modern climate models significantly underestimate how much extreme precipitation increases with global warming, meaning that extreme precipitation could increase faster than climate models suggest.
“Our study confirms that the intensity and frequency of extreme heavy rainfall increases exponentially with each increase in global warming,” explains it’s a statement Max Kotz, lead author of the study published in the ‘Journal of Climate’.
These changes follow the physical theory of the classical Clausius-Clapeyron relationship of 1834, which established that warmer air can hold more water vapor. “State-of-the-art climate models vary in how intensely extreme precipitation increases with global warming and underestimate them compared to historical observations.
“Climate impacts on society have been calculated using climate models. Now our findings suggest that these impacts could be much worse than we thought. Extreme rainfall will be more intense and frequent. Society must be prepared for this,” says Anders Levermann, head of the PIK department and author of the study. Changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme daily rainfall over land can affect social well-being, the economy and social stability, given its link with flooding, but also with the availability of groundwater, which can cause considerable loss of life and financial loss.
PIK researchers analyzed the intensity and frequency of daily extreme precipitation over land in 21 next-generation climate simulations (CMIP-6) and compared the changes projected by the CMIP-6 models with those observed historically. The method they applied is based on pattern filtering techniques, allowing them to separate which changes to the climate system are forced by human emissions and which are not.
While most land areas exhibit increases in both the intensity and frequency of extremes, stronger increases are typically found in tropical regions, according to the study. Significant changes occur most frequently in the tropics and at high latitudes, such as in Southeast Asia or northern Canada. The fact that these changes follow the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship supports the fact that thermodynamics, i.e. temperature and not dynamics, i.e. winds, dominates the global change of extreme rainfall events.
“The good news is that this makes it easier to predict the future of extreme precipitation. The bad news is that it will get worse if we continue to increase global temperatures by emitting greenhouse gases,” adds Anders Levermann.
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