Largely leader of the Formula 1 world championship, the Dutchman Max Verstappen (Red Bull) has the opportunity to offer himself a second consecutive title at the Japanese Grand Prix on Sunday, 18th round out of 22. Winner of eleven Grands Prix out of 17 , Verstappen arrives in Japan with 104 points ahead of Monegasque Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) and 106 over Mexican Sergio Pérez, his teammate at Red Bull.
To be titled on Sunday at Suzuka, Verstappen must be 112 points ahead of his competitors – the maximum points to be won in the last four races after Japan. He must therefore take eight points from Leclerc and six from Pérez. As such, he will have an advantage from the starting line thanks to his pole position won during qualifying on Saturday.
Ideal scenario: victory and fastest lap
As a reminder, the point scale is as follows: 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1 for the first ten, and a bonus point granted for the fastest lap for a driver finishing among the top ten.
Verstappen therefore has his destiny in his hands: if he wins the race by setting the fastest lap (25+1 points), then he will be titled, even if Leclerc finishes 2nd (18 points). Because even in the extremely unlikely case of a tie at the end of the year, the Dutchman would be crowned thanks to his number of victories: with eleven successes against three for Leclerc currently, he can no longer be joined at this level.
The duel remains open between Red Bull and Ferrari
If he wins without getting the fastest lap point (25 points), Verstappen will be titled if Leclerc does not do better than 3rd. If he finishes 2nd with the fastest lap (19 points), he will be titled if Leclerc does not do better than 5th and if Pérez does not do better than 4th. If he finishes 2nd without the fastest lap (18 points), he will be crowned if Leclerc finishes 5th without the fastest lap and if Pérez does not do better than 4th without the fastest lap. If he finishes 3rd with the bonus point (16 points), Leclerc will have to finish 6th and Pérez 5th or beyond. If he is 3rd without the fastest lap (15 points), Leclerc will have to finish 7th at best, and Pérez 6th at best.
Verstappen can still be titled off the podium, finishing 4th, 5th or even 6th without the fastest lap, provided you take eight units from Leclerc and six from Pérez. Otherwise, he will have to wait for the next race on October 23 in the United States. Among the constructors, on the other hand, the title cannot be played out at Suzuka: Red Bull (576 points) is mathematically not yet immune to a return from Ferrari (439).