“No need to worry” the new secretary general of NATO, the Dutch Mark Rutte, continues to repeat. He is convinced: Donald Trump’s return to the White House is not bad news for the future of the transatlantic organization, for the defense of Europe and for the outcome of the war in Ukraine. “His leadership will once again be a key element in keeping our Alliance strong,” he said Wednesday morning, sending his congratulations to America’s future president. And he added, to dispel the fears that this victory raises for the security of Europe: “I look forward to working with him again to promote peace by strengthening NATO.” »
He had already expressed this optimism upon his arrival at the helm of NATO on 1 October, declaring: “I’m not worried. I know both candidates very well and have worked with Donald Trump for four years. » And a few days later, at the end of his meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj, he once again assured, regarding the problems of the war in Ukraine, that Donald Trump “he understands completely and (That)which he agrees with (him) to say that this war is not just about Ukraine, but also about the future security of the United States.”
Critics of Donald Trump
In reality, the future American president’s position on NATO and the defense of Europe is not as reassuring as Mark Rutte would like us to believe. Since 2000, in his book The America we deserve, Donald Trump wrote it “their conflicts (in Eastern Europe) they are not worth the lives of Americans.”
Among its biggest and most constant complaints is the unwillingness of European member states to dedicate 2% of their GDP to defense – even though they pledged to do so at the 2014 NATO summit in Wales – forcing Washington to burdened by the majority The expenses of the Atlantic Alliance. “NATO is economically unfair to us, the United States. It helps them more than the United States and we pay a disproportionate share,” said in 2016 a New York Times.
Europe is remobilising
Donald Trump’s threats have not gone without effect among NATO member states. Out of 31 member countries, the number of those spending at least 2% of GDP on defense has increased from 3 in Donald Trump’s first term to 11 in 2023 and 23 in 2024. Among the most committed countries, Poland, which invests around 4% of its GDP in defense and expects to reach 4.7% next year.
The threat posed by Russia to European security since the start of the war in Ukraine, added to the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, has in fact pushed Europeans to invest more significantly in their defense. “Europe must urgently assume greater responsibility for security,” declared the head of Polish diplomacy, Radoslaw Sikorski, on Wednesday 6 November, while the German and French defense ministers met at the end of the day in Paris to immediately learn lessons from the victory of the republican candidate.
“The two countries work a lot together for the European pillar within NATO, but also for the strengthening of the European Union in the field of security and defense,” explained the spokesperson of the German Ministry of Defense Mitko Müller shortly before the meeting.
France calls for the strategic awakening of Europe
At the end of their meeting, the two defense ministers discussed the need “continue to rearm”. “It is fundamentally the path and line of European strategic autonomy in security and defense that we seek to defend,” Sébastien Lecornu underlined. The two ministers agreed “in the next two weeks” bring their British, Italian and Polish counterparts together to discuss it.
At the same time, the new European Defense Commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, told MEPs in Brussels that the European Union must spend more on its security, not because of Donald Trump’s election but because of the Russian threat. Second “recent intelligence reports”, Russia “could test EU or NATO resolution before end of decade,” he warned before drawing the following conclusion: “We urgently need to strengthen the EU’s preparedness for possible military aggression. Here’s how we can dissuade her. »
In front of the member states of the European Political Community (EPC), gathered at the Budapest summit on Thursday 7 November, Emmanuel Macron, who asks “strategic awakening” of Europeans since 2019, has, in turn, urged them not to do so “delegate for eternity” their safety in the United States.
Interview between Time.news Editor and NATO Expert on Trump’s Potential Return to the White House
Time.news Editor: Good morning, and welcome to our special interview segment. Today, we’re discussing a rather pressing topic: the implications of Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House on NATO and European security. Joining us is NATO expert Dr. Sophia Reynolds. Thank you for being here, Dr. Reynolds.
Dr. Reynolds: Thank you for having me. It’s a pleasure to be here.
Editor: Recently, NATO’s new Secretary General Mark Rutte expressed optimism about Trump’s potential leadership, stating that it would strengthen the transatlantic alliance. What are your thoughts on his assessment?
Dr. Reynolds: Rutte’s confidence stems from his previous experience working with Trump and the belief that their shared values could foster collaboration. However, it’s crucial to consider Trump’s historical skepticism towards NATO, particularly his assertion that European allies have not met their defense spending commitments. This sentiment hasn’t disappeared, and it introduces a level of unpredictability regarding his policies.
Editor: That brings us to the concerns about NATO burden sharing. Trump’s criticism has resulted in changes within Europe, with more nations committing to the 2% GDP defense spending target. How do you interpret this shift?
Dr. Reynolds: It’s a significant development. The number of countries spending at least 2% of their GDP on defense has indeed increased under Trump’s previous administration. This could be a defensive response to his rhetoric, which has made European nations more aware of their security responsibilities. For instance, Poland’s commitment to reach 4.7% next year is a clear sign that countries are mobilizing to address perceived threats, particularly from Russia.
Editor: Indeed, threats from Russia have heightened since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. In what ways do you think the situation in Ukraine might influence NATO’s dynamics under a Trump presidency?
Dr. Reynolds: The war in Ukraine has shifted the narrative around NATO significantly. Rutte mentioned that Trump understands this struggle not just as a Ukrainian issue but as a broader question of European and U.S. security. Should Trump return, the critical challenge will be balancing European expectations and American interests. His administration might prioritize demanding further financial commitments from European allies while also advocating for a united front against Russia.
Editor: Some critics express skepticism about Trump’s commitment to NATO’s mutual defense principle. Given his past statements regarding conflicts being “not worth the lives of Americans,” do you think this puts Europe’s security at risk?
Dr. Reynolds: Those criticisms are valid concerns. Trump’s past remarks create a perception that he may view some NATO obligations as burdensome rather than as integral to collective security. If European nations sense an inclination towards “America first” policies, it could lead to a diminished confidence in NATO’s solidarity, potentially emboldening adversaries. The challenge for NATO will be to ensure that all members feel committed to mutual defense, despite shifting political winds.
Editor: So, in your expert opinion, what should NATO’s approach be in preparing for a potential Trump administration?
Dr. Reynolds: NATO must continue to encourage European allies to enhance their defense capabilities and maintain a unified, strategic dialogue about the threats they face. Additionally, fostering strong bilateral relationships, particularly with nations like Poland and the Baltic states, will be critical in showcasing unity. Engagement with the U.S., regardless of its leadership, should emphasize the shared values of collective security and the importance of a robust transatlantic alliance.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Reynolds, for your insights on this complex and pivotal issue. It seems that the future of NATO may indeed hinge on how its members navigate the changing political landscape in the U.S.
Dr. Reynolds: Absolutely. The next couple of years will be crucial for NATO’s evolution, and it’s essential for member states to remain vigilant and adaptable.
Editor: Thank you again for joining us. We appreciate your time and expertise on this important topic.
Dr. Reynolds: Thank you for having me.