Faced with provocations from Moscow, the test of firmness for the Atlantic Alliance

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Turkish President Erdogan, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde and Finland’s Pekka Haavisto, at the NATO summit in Madrid, June 28. YVES HERMAN/REUTERS

Meeting in Madrid, NATO should include in the new Strategic Concept that Russia constitutes a direct threat to its security.

And “war crime“, of the “atrocities“, an attempt “of amazementto terrorize civilian populations, aunprecedented brutality“… In the aftermath of the deadly Russian strike that hit a shopping center in Kremenchuk, Western leaders took turns expressing their outrage in Elmau, Germany, after the G7 meeting, before traveling to Madrid for a NATO summit. “Russia cannot and should not win the war“, insisted in Bavaria the head of state Emmanuel Macron, forgetting, for a moment at least, his desire to maintain a window of dialogue with Vladimir Putin. “We must be united in Madrid, united in support for Ukraine, united in our firmness, united in the defense and security of the eastern flank of our Alliance“, he insisted while in Germany, the seven leaders of the richest countries decided to hit the Russian economy in “workingon capping the price of Russian oil and imposing import restrictions on Russian gold.

More than four months after the start of the conflict and while NATO is also preparing to draw the consequences, the autocrat has chosen intimidation and provocation. While the Ukrainians mourned their dead, Lithuania, a member of NATO, was the target of a cyberattack in response to the sanctions imposed on the enclave of Kaliningrad. “It’s not the first. We have known many others since February 24commented Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Baltic counterparts on Monday.

For us, Crimea is a part of Russia. Which means she is forever

Dmitry Medvedev, former president and close to Putin.

In this context of threats, the Kremlin affirmed its determination to carry out the war until its end. The conflict will end when Ukraine has “lay down their arms“and implemented”all conditions set by Russiasaid Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. At the same time, Dmitri Medvedev, former president and close to Putin, was belligerent: if Crimea is attacked by a NATO member country, “it will be the third world war“, he warned. “For us, Crimea is a part of Russia. Which means she is forever“, did he declare.

In Spain, the war is far away. Torn, the ruling coalition delivers few weapons to Ukraine and devotes only one percent of its GDP to its defense, at the back of the pack. But with the NATO summit, which opened Tuesday evening with a dinner with the King of Spain, Felipe VI, the Alliance is preparing to write down in black and white in its new Strategic Concept that Russia constitutes a direct threat to its safety. The main military nations of the Alliance should announce “an extra effort“, assures an American diplomat; “and even France». «We are a reliable ally“, we insist at the Elysée.

SEE ALSO – Joe Biden announces US military reinforcements in Europe

Winning the Unity Bet

The United States is expected to confirm on Wednesday “new military commitments (Americans in Europe, Editor’s note) on land, at sea and in the air for the long term“. For his part, Chancellor Olaf Scholz assured in an interview with ARD that the Bundeswehr would become “largest conventional army» d’Europe. «This is important for NATO’s defense capability as a whole.“, he estimated.

But it will not be these abilities that will fight. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky calls again and again for weapons. It thus urges its Western partners to provide in particular anti-missile defense systems. NATO is examining ways to replace the capabilities that member states would deliver to Ukraine.

Westerners will have to win the bet of unity. Moscow is banking on the erosion and weariness of democracies in the medium term to weaken Ukraine

To overcome the test of firmness, Westerners will have to win the challenge of unity. Moscow, for its part, is betting on the erosion and weariness of democracies in the medium term to weaken Ukraine. The Madrid summit was in any case crowned with success on Tuesday evening: Turkey lifted its veto on a candidacy for the Alliance of Finland and Sweden, while a blockage was expected from Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Signed in front of the cameras after three hours of discussions between the Turkish leader, his Finnish counterpart Sauli Niinistö and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, the agreement allowed Turkey to obtain the “full cooperationof the two Nordic countries in thestruggleagainst the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, considered by Ankara as a terrorist organization, announced the Turkish presidency. Similarly, Sweden and Finland have agreed not tonot impose restrictions or embargoes on defense industries“, she continued, explaining that the “Turkey got what she wanted». NATO goes «inviteOfficially Wednesday these two countries to join the Alliance, for its part announced its secretary general Jens Stoltenberg.

SEE ALSO – Russia is a “direct threat to the security of NATO countries”

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