2023-05-05 13:02:42
Frida Ghitis(@fridaghitis) former producer and correspondent for CNN, is a columnist on world affairs.
(CNN) — The ad was impressive and the imagery stunning. The Kremlin declared that it had been attacked on Wednesday night by two drones whose objective, it claimed, was to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was unharmed.
Moscow accused Ukraine of what it called a “terrorist act.” Ukraine said it had nothing to do with whatever happened that night. (The next day, the Kremlin also accused the United States of involvement in the alleged bombing, which the United States denies.)
Videos spread on social media showed what looked like drones and a fiery explosion over the Kremlin, whose walls were already festooned with banners in preparation for the May 9 celebration of Victory Day, when Russia commemorates its triumph over Germany. Nazi in World War II and exhibits its military might with parades.
What exactly happened in the Kremlin, a word meaning fortress in Russian, seat of government and residence of the president, presumably heavily fortified?
Russia’s credibility, especially regarding its war against Ukraine, has been crushed by its persistent lies. However, we do not know what happened.
During a trip to Finland, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the Kremlin’s accusation. “We are not attacking Putin or Moscow,” he said, “we are fighting on our territory.” Ukraine, he added, leaves Putin’s fate in the hands of the court, probably referring to the International Criminal Court, which has already issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president on war crimes charges.
Earlier, a spokesman for Zelensky rejected any claim that Ukraine was trying to kill Putin. “This is a trick that can be expected from our opponents,” Serhiy Nykyforov said, accusing Moscow of “deliberately escalating the situation before May 9.”
Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, said such an attack would be counterproductive for Ukraine, giving Russia a justification for mass attacks. Instead, he argued, the incident was staged by Russia to create a diversion and seize the initiative.
Another possibility is that the attack was perpetrated by Russians opposed to Putin. A former Russian lawmaker, now in exile, told CNN that’s precisely what happened. “It’s one of the Russian partisan groups,” Ilya Pomarev said, “I can’t say more, as they haven’t publicly taken responsibility yet.”
If so, it is to be expected that Putin’s repression in Russia will intensify.
As uncertainty about the event continues, one fact remains beyond doubt: with each passing day, the war in Ukraine moves closer to a major escalation.
The ground remains muddy as the winter snow melts; temperatures are rising. Ukraine has repeatedly announced that it plans a full-scale counteroffensive, a push to retake Ukrainian territory captured by the Russian occupiers.
Russia is nervous about this imminent new stage of the war. And, frankly, Ukraine’s allies too.
Ukrainian forces surprised not only Russia but also their friends with their staunch defense, holding out in a conflict many expected them to lose in a matter of days. But defending territory is not the same as retaking ground that has already been captured, especially when Russia has had months to fortify her positions.
Highly classified Pentagon material recently leaked including pessimistic assessments of Ukraine’s ability to carry out an offensive, with one analysis warning that “Russia’s attrition campaign in the Donbas region is likely heading toward a stalemate.”
The tone of the analysis does not match the optimistic assessments coming from London and Washington. However, those documents appear to date from February and March, so the analysis may have changed.
The cost of a failed operation, or even minimal success, would not only be in lives lost. On top of the carnage, it could end up dashing Ukraine’s hopes of holding on to its territory.
Ukraine has been preparing for what it hopes will be a campaign that will transform the war and give it the upper hand. If that doesn’t happen, her supporters in the West could lose patience and demand that Kyiv make concessions to Moscow.
For the moment, Ukraine’s allies have been contributing military resources. So far, Ukraine has proven its initial pessimism wrong. But some remain concerned that the fighting forces, driven by the importance of their mission, to save their country, are too optimistic.
Russia has also beefed up its defenses in anticipation of the Ukrainian assault. Ukrainian soldiers would face heavily mined fields, deep anti-tank ditches, and trenches. Satellite images confirm that Russia has built hundreds of kilometers of fortifications in the areas where Ukraine is expected to attack, from the east and through the south towards Crimea.
It all adds up to a growing level of nervousness ahead of a season of intensifying fighting. In this context, the Kremlin accused Kyiv of trying to assassinate Putin.
The incident is shrouded in mystery. Would Putin, so conscious of his image, deliberately show that the powerful Kremlin complex is so vulnerable? Would Ukraine bet on an assassination?
The Kremlin is so restless about what lies ahead that Victory Day celebrations have been slashed across the country. The stands are already going up on Red Square, but the celebrations will be very different this year.
Authorities have canceled some of the most emotional traditions of the May 9 holiday, such as large rallies and parades honoring those killed in Russia’s wars, citing security concerns. At the Immortal Regiment parade, hundreds of thousands of Russians take to the streets, many carrying photos of their relatives who served the nation in World War II, the Great Patriotic War, as it is known there.
That event will not happen this year. Some observers say the real reason it was canceled is that the Kremlin fears large public gatherings will turn into protests, and they worry that photographs of dead soldiers carried by relatives show the tens of thousands of Russians killed in the last few months fighting in the Ukraine, underscoring the cost of the so-called “Special Military Operation”, the Russian invasion of the Ukraine that Putin finally called a “war”.
Fourteen months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, the war in Ukraine is already the worst on European soil since World War II.
What has happened in the night skies over Moscow is yet another sign that this is going to be a very hot spring in the Ukraine, with the fighting entering a new and more intense phase, which could determine the outcome of this terrible war.
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