Factors influencing marine invertebrate extinction risk due to climate change: Insights from fossil record

2024-03-11 18:25:22

Artist’s rendering of a Late Triassic underwater scene before (left) and after (right) an extinction event associated with climate change. Credit: Maija Karala

A recent study leveraged the fossil record to gain insights into the characteristics that make animals more susceptible to extinction due to climate change. This study aims to identify the species currently most at risk of extinction due to anthropogenic climate change. The findings were recently published in the journal knowledge.

Past climate change (mostly caused by natural changes in greenhouse gases due to volcanic activity) has been responsible for countless species of extinction throughout the history of life on Earth. But, until now, it was not clear what factors make species more or less resistant to such change, and how the magnitude of climate change affects the risk of extinction.

Led by researchers from the University of Oxford, this new study sought to answer this question by analyzing the fossil record for marine invertebrates (such as sea urchins, snails and molluscs) over the past 485 million years. Marine invertebrates have a rich and well-studied fossil record, which makes it possible to identify when, and possibly why, species become extinct.

An infographic summarizing the main traits and factors identified by the study that determine species’ risk of climate change-related extinction. Credit: Miranta Kouvari (Science Graphic Design).

Using more than 290,000 fossil records covering more than 9,200 genera, the researchers compiled a dataset of key traits that may influence extinction resistance, including traits that have not been studied in depth before, such as preferred temperature. This trait information was combined with climate simulation data to develop a model to understand which factors were most important in determining extinction risk during climate change.

Key findings:

• The authors found that species exposed to greater climate changes tend to become extinct. In particular, species that experienced temperature changes of 7°C or more across geological stages were significantly more vulnerable to extinction.
• The authors also found that species found in climatic extremes (e.g. polar regions) were disproportionately vulnerable to extinction, and animals that could only live in a narrow range of temperatures (especially ranges less than 15°C) were more likely to become extinct.
• However, geographic range size was the strongest predictor of extinction risk. Species with larger geographic ranges were significantly less likely to become extinct. Body size was also important, with smaller-bodied species more likely to go extinct.
• All traits studied had a cumulative effect on extinction risk. For example, species with small geographic ranges and narrow thermal ranges were even more susceptible to extinction than species with only one of these traits.

Cooper Melanosky (Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford), first author of the study, said: “Our study found that geographic range was the strongest predictor of extinction risk for marine invertebrates, but that the magnitude of climate change is also an important predictor of extinction, which has implications for “On biodiversity today. The face of climate change.”

As current human-driven climate change is already pushing many species to the brink of extinction and beyond, these results may help identify the animals most at risk, and inform strategies to protect them.

Lead author Professor Erin Sapp (Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford) said: “Evidence from the geological past suggests that global biodiversity faces an alarming future, given estimates of projected climate change. In particular, our model suggests that species with limited thermal ranges of less From 15 degrees Celsius, life in the poles or tropics is expected to be at greatest risk of extinction. However, if local climate change is large enough, it could lead to significant global extinctions, potentially pushing us closer to a sixth mass extinction.’

According to the research team, future work should explore how climate change interacts with other potential extinction drivers, such as ocean acidification and anoxia (where seawater is depleted of oxygen).

Researchers from the School of Geosciences, University of Bristol also participated in the study. Professor Dan Lunt, from the University of Bristol, said: “This research shows that throughout Earth’s history, the extinction of marine life has been inextricably linked to climate change. This should be a stark warning to humanity as we recklessly continue to cause climate change ourselves through burning fossil fuels. Fossils.’