Dario Scannapieco (left) and Giovanni Gorno Tempini
Four infrastructure operations concluded in the last three months (Aspi, Open Fiber, Nexi-Sia, Euronext), the management renewed, a clear direction: interventions in the economy that are more indirect than direct, in line with Europe and the indications of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan. All this with the yardstick of social and environmental sustainability: the impact of each new investment will be measured on this parameter, avoiding, for example, projects involving fossil fuels, on the model of the Energy lending policy of the European Investment Bank. This is how the Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, led by the CEO Dario Scannapieco and the President Giovanni Gorno Tempini, will be presented at the presentation of the 2022-2025 strategic plan, on 25 November, in Rome. According to sources, the Tim affair is neither the subject of the plan nor of comments on the presentation.
The takeover of Tim
Of the telephone company – on which the news of the public purchase offer at € 0.505 per share arrived on November 20 by the American fund Kkr – Cdp has 9.81%. a stake in the balance sheet with significant losses so far (Monday morning for the Tim share flown), given the drop in the value of the share since Cassa entered (on 11 April 2018, with the first tranche of 4.2%, the share was at 80 cents, Friday 19 November it was at 0.35 cents, less than half). The rudder is in the hands of the Ministry of the Treasury, which is the main shareholder of Cassa and which issued a statement on November 21 stating: The government (which can enforce its veto right with the golden power, returning Tim to the interest strategic for the country, ed) acknowledges the interest in Tim shown by qualified institutional investors, the interest of these investors in making investments in important Italian companies, positive news for the country. And again: The government’s objective to ensure that these projects are compatible with the rapid completion of the ultra-broadband connection, as envisaged in the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, with the necessary investments in the development of the infrastructure, and with the safeguarding and employment growth.
The hypothesis
A direct strengthening intervention by Cdp in Tim’s shareholding structure, which now sees the French Vivendi of Vincent Bollor as the first shareholder, certainly cannot be excluded, by no means taken for granted, given the necessary outlay and the conflict of interest that it could grow stronger by already owning Cdp the competitor Open Fiber. And also in view of the new selective strategy on Cassa by the Draghi executive, compared to the previous government, which could be summed up in a slogan: never again Cassa continues. If CDP accepted Kkr’s offer, it would eliminate the strategic impasse of having a position in both Tim and Open Fiber – Equita analysts declared on November 22 -, remaining exposed only to Open Fiber and maintaining the opportunity to relaunch the single network project, especially if Kkr were in favor of a split of the network or were forced to hand over control of the network to Golden Power. If CDP were to sell, it would then reduce the capital losses owed to Tim.
The discontinuity
The strategic plan is the first signed by Scannapieco, formerly Bei, in agreement with Gorno. It may include six projects, assigned by the government to Cdp, worth 3.3 billion allocated by the NRP, of which Cdp is the implementing body: they concern startups, tourism, support for businesses on digital, environment, internationalization and are consistent with the country’s transformation plan. a plan from which no revolutions are expected compared to the previous management. However, there is a discontinuity: the different position of Cdp in the country’s economy. With the Draghi government, the CDP a is no longer understood as the public panacea. The State safe, controlled by the Treasury and powered by 274 billion in postal savings from savers, shareholder of large groups from Eni to the Post Office, from Tim to Open Fiber, from Snam to Terna and Italgas, will act as an accompanying actor for growth of the country, more than as a protagonist of direct management of the economy. Therefore, fewer direct acquisitions and more organization to achieve the objective of socio-environmental impact, as well as the return on capital. With the classic pillars: infrastructures, public administration, businesses, innovation.
The inheritance
A stabilization will also have to be considered in the next three years. In the last four years, the consolidated equity of Cassa has eroded and its capital solidity, while remaining high, has decreased. While dividends have soared. From 2017 to 2020, a period of particular activism, the net assets of the Cdp group fell from 35.9 to 33.7 billion, liabilities increased from 383.6 to 478 billion, earnings before taxes fell from 5.7 to 2.6 billion. Capital solidity (equity / liability ratio) dropped from 9.3% to 7%. Dividends to shareholders (Treasury and banking foundations) increased by 61% from 1.88 to three billion. Even in the holding company Cdp spa, where net equity also increased (from 24.4 to 25.5 billion), capital solidity dropped from 7.13% to 6.63%.
Consultants and results
Bain’s consultants worked belly to earth on the strategic plan, led by Italy country manager Roberto Prioreschi. Bain had not worked with CDP for some time, a not obvious approach is expected. Since the inauguration of the new board on June 1st, Cassa has worked hard and closed several delicate issues, with the blessing of the European Antitrust. On 15 October, the green light, albeit conditional, for the Nexi-Sia merger, payment networks, arrived from Brussels; on 11 November, the increase from 50% to 60% of the stake in Open Fiber, a fiber optic network, where Cdp rises to 60%, with the Macquarie fund entering 40% in place of Enel; and on the 12th there was the go-ahead for the sale of Autostrade per l’Italia to the consortium between Cdp Equity, Blackstone and Macquarie, followed on the 17th by the go-ahead from the government. Furthermore, on 27 October at the helm of Borsa Italiana, which merged smoothly into Euronext where Cdp has 7.3%, an Italian, Fabrizio Testa, selected by Scannapieco and Pierpaolo Di Stefano, ceo of Cdp Equity, went.
Poste and Sace
Both the agreement with Poste Italiane, which expired at the end of 2020, and the transfer of Sace from Cdp to the Treasury are expected to be closed by the end of the year (Sace is no longer accounting for the 2021 financial statements of the group). For Cassa it would be a consolidated equity loss, even if offset by the 4.2 billion that the Treasury has to pay for Sace. On the export front, Simest would remain, with whom the work to internationalize companies is being reset.
the wallet
In the share portfolio, which includes companies such as Webuild, Inalca, Bonifiche Ferraresi, Th Resort, divestments will be possible while among the large investee companies there is the question of Fintecna, classified by Istat in the public administration (perimeter from which Cdp excluded): its any debt (now he has none) will be counted as public debt. It will then be possible to really conclude with the sale of Oto Melara by Leonardo to the subsidiary Fincantieri.
The cloud and public bodies
Cdp will play an important role in supporting public bodies in the digital transition, with dedicated consultants. Strong intervention especially if the race for the national Cloud is won by the Cdp consortium with Leonardo, Sogei and Tim. The work of the Innovation Fund, the only one of the CDP group mentioned in the NRP, recipient of 300 million euros, will also be central. Money that is added to the two billion that should arrive from the allocation of the assets, with a decree of the Ministry of Development within the year. By 2022, the fund, which already has over 150 startups in its portfolio with 560 million invested, expects to reach over 4 billion of endowment and a thousand startups with shareholdings, including direct and, above all, indirectly, also with the EIF.
European funds and the team
European funds will be one of the axes of the CDP plan, although the Invest in Eu project of 26 billion, of which one billion should go to Cassa after the tender, is overdue. A certain allocation, on the other hand, is the Climate Fund of 840 million a year until 2026, foreseen in the maneuver, which CDP will manage. While the Italian investment fund, which already has 2.1 billion under management, continues with the consolidation of companies, private debt, agritech and funds of funds.
Behind it all is the team with new additions wanted by Scannapieco: the banker Lorenzo Fidato at the head of the Pnrr projects; the former CEO of Aeroporti di Roma, Maurizio Basile, senior advisor; Enrico Canu, formerly of Fei, with Di Stefano in Cdp Equity. And the enhancement of managers already present: among others Antonella Baldino, head of international cooperation; Andrea Montanino, chief economist; and Alberto Tavani, Head of Innovation and Digital Transformation. The unfinished replacement.
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