Author: Elchin Alioglu
Source: Trend
According to the survey conducted in Armenia by the International Republican Institute of the USA, 56 percent of the participants support the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. 31 percent of respondents fully support this idea, and 25 percent partially support it. The survey was conducted between September 13 and 25.
At the same time, 38 percent of the participants think that peace with Azerbaijan is a desirable but unattainable goal, while 33 percent consider it neither desirable nor unattainable.
Recently, it is often reported from Baku that the Constitution of Armenia is the main obstacle for signing the agreement. Official circles of Azerbaijan claim that the Constitution of Armenia contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan. A large part of Armenian citizens supporting the normalization of relations (40 percent) opposed the change of the country’s constitution and declared that “changing the constitution is an internal matter of Armenia”.
According to the results of the survey conducted by IRI, 76 percent of respondents consider the current state of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations as very bad. 87 percent think that Azerbaijan is a political threat to Armenia.
80 percent of the respondents say that they are not ready to make any concessions for the sake of achieving peace with Azerbaijan. Only three percent are ready to make concessions in the border delimitation process. One percent considers the withdrawal of Armenians from Karabakh and the granting of a “corridor” through the territory of Armenia to Azerbaijan as a concession.
Turkey is also “a political threat to Armenia”
45 percent of the respondents evaluate Armenia-Turkey relations as very bad, 27 percent as bad, and 22 percent as somewhat good. Only three percent think that Armenia-Turkey relations are very good.
79 percent see Turkey as a political threat to Armenia, five percent consider this country a political partner, and two percent see Turkey as a security partner.
42 percent of the respondents are strongly against the opening of the Armenia-Turkey border, while 18 percent fully support this process.
Possible economic growth (65 percent) is noted among the advantages of opening the border. The majority (46 percent) see the dangerous side of the opening of the border in the “free arrival and departure of Turks and Azerbaijanis”, which in their opinion can be dangerous.
Armenian claim: “Turkey’s preconditions against Armenia are often voiced from Baku”
31 percent of the respondents think that the foreign policy course of the country should be oriented towards the West, but Armenia should also maintain relations with Russia. Only 20 percent advocate only strengthening relations with the West. The same percentage of respondents want to maintain close relations with Russia, but also to continue relations with the West. Only six percent unilaterally support the pro-Russian policy.
Armenian citizens want to join the EU
Since September 16, signatures for the referendum on the country’s membership in the European Union have been collected in all municipalities and regions of Armenia. This is the initiative of the “Platform of Democratic Forces”. In order to put this initiative on the agenda of the parliament, 50,000 signatures had to be collected by November 14, and these signatures have already been collected ahead of time.
According to the results of the survey conducted by the International Republic Institute, the majority of Armenian citizens support EU membership. The question was: “If a referendum on Armenia’s membership in the European Union was held next Sunday, how would you vote?” 58 percent of respondents said they would vote for membership.
According to respondents, the main benefit of membership is enhanced security (40 percent).
They were asked “What is the main disadvantage of EU membership?” the question was also asked. 28 percent had difficulty answering this question. Others chose the following options:
- Deterioration of Armenian family norms – 22 percent,
- The EU will not help Armenia, it will not be safe, it will not support Armenia, the EU is unreliable partners – 21 percent,
- Increased threat risk from Russia – 12 percent,
- Negative impact on the economy – six percent.
Who do they believe?
16 percent of respondents trust Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Compared to the previous survey conducted by IRI in early 2023, Pashinyan’s rating increased by two percentage points.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan and the leader of the “Respublika” party Aram Sarkisyan won four percent of trust each. Two percent trust the Speaker of the Parliament, Alen Simonyan, and another two percent, the former President of Armenia, Robert Kocharyan. 29 percent said they would not vote for any political force.
Poll participants were asked which party or bloc they would vote for if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday. 20 percent of the participants said they would vote for the ruling “Citizen Agreement” party. In 2023, the number of people ready to vote for the Prime Minister’s party was 17 percent. Two percent support the Republic of Armenia Party led by former President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan, and another two percent support the opposition “Armenia” bloc (led by former President Robert Kocharyan).
From security to economy: the main problems of the country
Most of the survey participants (41 percent) indicated national security and border protection as the main problems of the country. 14 percent said unemployment was the biggest problem, and 10 percent said high prices. In addition, residents of Armenia are interested in solving the following problems:
- unsatisfactory quality of education,
- low wages,
- strengthening the army,
- the negligence of the government and the weak team of the current authorities,
- political instability,
- wrong foreign policy course.
One of the main trends observed in Nikol Pashinyan’s government’s foreign policy is the continuation of high expectations from new partners. According to recent surveys, trust levels for countries and organizations such as India, France, Iran, the United States, Georgia and the European Union are above 80%, while the figure for Russia is only 35%. These figures show that Pashinyan’s foreign policy policy led to a sharp weakening of Russia’s positions, while other countries and organizations appear to be on the rise. However, it is questionable how effective diversification in foreign policy actually is.
The diplomatic failures of N. Pashinyan’s government have caused wide discussions in the society. The results of the survey show that one of the most serious problems of Armenia is the shortcomings in the diplomatic field; 16% of respondents see it as one of the biggest problems. After that, the weaknesses in the personnel policy of the government and the issues of border demarcation with Azerbaijan are also noticed. The situation with Azerbaijan remains almost the same.
Support for the peace agreement with Azerbaijan is relatively high in Armenian society – 56% support the agreement, while 38% are against it. But these figures raise questions about the details of the matter, because the organizers of the survey did not give any information about the form of the contract. In addition, relations among the population regarding constitutional reforms or new concessions with Azerbaijan are also uncertain. For example, 80% of respondents say that there is no possibility to give more concessions to Azerbaijan. This means that the Armenian society is of the opinion that the maximum possible concessions within the framework of the normalization of relations with Azerbaijan have been reached.
The situation with Turkey is somewhat different. Support for the normalization of relations with Turkey is lower than with Azerbaijan: 42% of the polls support normalization, and 56% oppose it. The younger generation has a more radical position, especially against Turkey; half of the respondents are against the normalization of relations with Turkey. This is an issue that the Pashinyan government should pay attention to, because such a radical position of the youth can have a serious impact on the future of Armenia.
As for domestic politics, the polls reveal a number of interesting nuances. Pashinyan remains the most popular politician in the country, but his support is only 16%. He is followed by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia, Ararat Mirzoyan, and the leader of the AKP, Aram Sargsyan, but their support is very low – only 4%. What is more interesting is that 61% of the respondents do not trust any political force. This number seriously shows that a large part of the society is looking for a political alternative. The figure of 54% means that they expect the emergence of a new political force. This situation is already being actively considered by various groups, and various coalitions are forming to be the leaders of this new force.
As for the parties, Nikol Pashinyan’s Citizen Agreement Party is still supported at 20%, but other parties only have 2-3% support. The trend of the emergence of new powers in the political spectrum of Armenia is visible, especially the coalition formed around Aram Sargsyan, the head of the AKP. This force has created a certain dynamic by collecting petitions for membership in the European Union, and this coalition is trying to keep the post of mayor of Yerevan together with Pashinyan.
Among the main problems of Armenia, security issues prevail – according to the results of surveys, 41% of respondents see security and border issues as the main problems of the country. Other important problems include unemployment (14%) and rising cost of living (10%). As for the government’s achievements, the main areas include the improvement of road infrastructure, military reforms and security issues. However, the government’s steps towards democracy are considered a success by only 2% of the population.
In general, the activities of Pashinyan’s government and trends in Armenia’s domestic and foreign policy complicate the country’s current situation. There is great uncertainty in the political arena, the probability of the emergence of new powers is increasing, and the socio-economic problems of society appear more prominently on the political agenda. Under these circumstances, it is questionable how they will deal with internal and external pressures on Pashinyan and his government.