World gold prices surged past $5,000 per ounce by 23:30 on February 13, 2026, as unexpectedly cool inflation data ignited a rally fueled by speculation of imminent interest rate cuts.
Inflation Cools, Gold Heats Up
A weaker-than-expected CPI report sent gold soaring, signaling a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy.
- The spot price of gold reached $4,987 per ounce immediately following the release of January’s CPI data.
- U.S. inflation rose 2.4% annually in January, below forecasts of 2.5% and December’s 2.7%.
- Geopolitical tensions and potential tariff adjustments are adding to gold’s safe-haven appeal.
- Domestic Vietnamese gold prices saw a slight decrease, with SJC gold bars trading at 176-179 million VND per ounce.
At 21:00 on February 13 (Vietnamese time), the spot price of gold in the international market was $4,984 per ounce. Gold futures for March 2026 delivery traded at $4,988 an ounce on the New York Comex Exchange. The initial jump came as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the consumer price index (CPI) for January rose just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.3% forecast and a step down from December’s 0.3% increase.
The report revealed that core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, isn’t accelerating either. The core consumer price index rose 0.3% in January, matching expectations after a 0.2% rise in December. Year-over-year, core inflation held steady at 2.5%.
What Does This Mean for Interest Rates?
The market had anticipated a 2.5% year-over-year rise in the CPI, with core CPI also forecast at 2.5%. The CPI is a crucial indicator influencing the Federal Reserve System’s (Fed) policy decisions. A slowdown in inflation, or a fall below projections, increases the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates, a move that typically supports gold, a non-yielding asset. Conversely, a stronger inflation report could push bond yields and the U.S. dollar higher, potentially pressuring gold prices.
Geopolitical Factors at Play
Adding to the bullish sentiment, geopolitical news is contributing to gold’s appeal. Reports that the Trump administration is considering adjustments to tariffs on steel and aluminum are injecting uncertainty into the base metals market. Ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, coupled with military events in the Middle East, continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
The U.S. dollar index saw a marginal increase, while 10-year U.S. treasury bond yields fluctuated around 4.12%. Oil prices settled in the $62-$63 per barrel range.
Domestic Gold Market
On February 13, SJC gold bars traded at 176-179 million VND per ounce (purchase-sale), a decrease of 2 million VND per ounce from the previous day’s closing price. SJC gold rings (1-5 taels) were trading at VND175.5-178.5 million/tael (buy-sell), also down 2 million VND/tael. The price of 9999 fine gold rings on the Doji Exchange ended the session at VND175.6-178.6 million/oz (buy-sell), down VND1.9 million/oz. Simple gold rings on the Bao Ting Minh Chau Exchange closed at 176-179 million VND per ounce (buy-sell), a decrease of 2 million VND.
What’s the Outlook?
Michael Ball, a macro strategist at Bloomberg, attributes the recent volatility in precious metals prices to systemic, semi-automated trading rather than fundamental economic deterioration. He noted that cautious sentiment in the stock market, driven by concerns surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) technology, has spilled over into the metals market, triggering a cascade of sell orders as prices dipped below key levels. Despite a slight rebound, gold and other metals remain under short-term pressure.
Steve Land, portfolio manager for Franklin Templeton’s Franklin Gold and Precious Metals Fund, emphasized gold’s historical performance during times of financial and geopolitical stress. He stated that global conflicts, trade uncertainty, and fiscal risks in major economies continue to bolster this trend. High government debt, persistent deficits, and growing acceptance of higher inflation erode confidence in fiat currencies, supporting gold’s long-term value. Gold supply is limited while demand continues to climb.
Land believes the recent surge in gold prices was largely driven by central bank and ETF purchases of physical gold, outpacing investment in mining stocks. He suggests that, after recent swings, the market may be entering a consolidation phase, making gold mining stocks a potentially attractive opportunity as they currently trade at a discount to the spot price.
