2023-05-15 21:39:17
Dhe older people remember: Industry in the Federal Republic was booming – televisions, long-distance travel and VW Beetles were suddenly affordable for ordinary people. Sun instead of worries, “prosperity for everyone” as the slogan for the economic miracle of the 1950s and 1960s.
Those times are coming back. At least that’s what Olaf Scholz promises. Thanks to the green transformation of the economy, i.e. the conversion of factories and products to climate neutrality, growth rates like those of the times of the economic miracle are possible, says the SPD Chancellor.
Industry is the key to a possible economic miracle. It accounts for almost a quarter of Germany’s economic output and has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by a good 40 percent since 1990. Now comes the Herculean task: by the year 2045, she must save the remaining 60 percent of emissions – and supply the world with so many electric cars, heat pumps and efficient machines that prosperity in this country increases and does not decrease.
Contrary to the Chancellor
Is this realistic? The FAZ took a look at the core sectors – mechanical engineering, automotive industry, chemicals – to see how far the transformation had progressed and how the opportunities in global competition were changing. The results and the assessments of researchers contradict the chancellor’s hopes. There is no talk of the “economic miracle” outside of Berlin.
Hopes are still greatest in mechanical engineering. The decisive question for the industry, which employs more than a million people in Germany, is whether it can become the global outfitter for the energy transition or whether it will be dug out of the water by the Asian and American competitors. Machine builders are hoping for good business because customers and investors expect low-emission products and processes – above all, they expect a huge market for green technologies.
In a study, the consulting company BCG estimates what can be achieved in the field of green technologies: According to this, a global sales volume of more than 25 trillion dollars can be expected by 2040 – especially for renewable energies, i.e. solar systems and wind turbines with 9 trillion dollars , $7 trillion for power grids, and $4 trillion for energy storage. If the machine builders, who are themselves responsible for 0.2 gigatons of emissions, succeed in securing a significant portion of this, the signs point to growth.
Germany with a “good starting position” in green technologies
KfW Chief Economist Fritzi Köhler-Geib says: “According to projections, the global market for green technologies will grow by around 7 percent per year up to 2030. Germany, as the second largest exporter of environmental and climate protection goods with a world market share of 12 percent, has a good starting position here.” This is not a sure-fire success, as the sad history of German photovoltaic system manufacturers shows. As soon as new technology becomes mass-produced, Germany gets a competitive disadvantage.
In the automotive industry, too, market shares are being redistributed due to the triumph of e-cars. The employer-oriented Institute of German Business has calculated that 260,000 people work in this industry with combustion engines, powertrains and exhaust gas purification. Their jobs are most at risk – also because new rivals such as BYD and Tesla are pushing into the electronics market and are vying for market shares from German brand manufacturers.
#Federal #Chancellor #Olaf #Scholz #economic #miracle #green #transformation