2023-12-31 19:08:00
The victory is final. Félix Tshisekedi was credited with 73.34% of the votes by the independent national electoral commission (Ceni). Far behind are the second, Moïse Katumbi (18.08%) and the third, Martin Fayulu (5.33%). The other candidates obtained scores below 1%, with the exception of former Prime Minister Adolphe Muzito (1.12%). An unsurprising victory, expected and even announced before the December 20 election: the last serious poll published on December 18 by the Congolese Institute for Research on Politics Ebuleti and the Congo Research Group already gave him the winner with 49, 3% of the votes.
A political system favorable to the power in place
A success that Félix Tshisekedi owes less to his record and his project for his fellow citizens than to the political and electoral system which prevails in this country. Firstly, the voting method: a one-round election with a simple majority. This principle desired and adopted by Joseph Kabila in 2011 (to enable him to win the presidential election a few months later), gives a great advantage to the outgoing president: especially when the opposition presents itself in dispersed order (around twenty candidates this year) .
Félix Tshisekedi was also able to count on the power of his political party, the only structure that really had the means to cover the immense Congolese territory. A spin-off which allows it to maintain the clientelism characteristic of the political life of this central African giant. “All political leaders set up a system of patronage, they motivate their supporters by giving them prebends, local positions and by paying them. Félix Tshisekedi’s party was far ahead of the others on this level », Explains a keen observer from the DRC under contract with an international agency. And to specify that the presidential camp would have drawn on the funds distributed to its supporters in the opaque agreements on the exploitation of mining resources concluded with national and international organizations and powers: all of which have little concern for the general interest. Thanks to these resources, he would have secured the support and support necessary to remain in power.
A populist speech
« In the case of Félix Tshisekedi, we cannot deny that he also has a popular base that goes beyond his region of origin, Kasai. », Adds a close friend of Doctor Mukwege, himself an unsuccessful presidential candidate. His speech demanding the departure of the UN mission and the African force that came to stabilize Kivu was very popular. Just like his denunciations of the M23, the armed group accused of being supported by Rwanda, and of the role he attributes to Rwandan President Paul Kagame, going so far as to compare him to Adolf Hitler in a meeting in Bukavu (capital of the South). Kivu) on December 8, triggering loud applause from the crowd present.
Félix Tshisekedi, like all outgoing presidents, could also count on the independent national electoral commission (Ceni), accused by his detractors of systematically playing the game of power. Its president, Denis Kadima, is also known to be close to him. He also comes from Kasai. His appointment in 2021 had been denounced by many observers, starting with the Congolese Catholic Church. In vain.
Impunity for cheaters
Another asset in its favor is the immunity available to those in power. Thus, the observations and documented reports of national or international organizations on the irregularities which tainted the victory of the outgoing president or his candidate were never taken into account. Findings which in no way made it possible to restore the cheated candidate and to divest the proclaimed cheater. Even the most critical end up recognizing or taking note of the results announced by the Ceni: despite the twists, irregularities and manipulations that they have made public.
This is why no one really had any illusions about the meaning and quality of this electoral meeting of December 20. “ In the DRC, there is no saving change in governance to be expected from the elections », Judge Thierry Vircoulon, of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), who recalls how the presidential elections of 2006, 2011 and 2018 were fraudulent. A false pretense whose budget is still around a billion dollars (or around 920 million euros) in a country where more than 70% of the population lives below the poverty line.
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