Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker has emerged as the projected No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. ESPN analyst Field Yates placed the dual-threat sophomore at the top of his early mock draft, as scouts weigh rising prospects against struggling top-tier names.
Analysts are adjusting their projections for next April’s selection order.
Drew Mestemaker and the Rise to QB1
Oklahoma State coach Eric Morris remembers the initial impressions from practices ahead of the First Responder Bowl on Jan. 3, 2025. Then-defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity watched the 6-foot-3, 215-pound walk-on freshman and came away with high expectations. Mestemaker had previously served as a backup quarterback, safety, and punter at Vandegrift High School in Austin, Texas.
Now starting for the Cowboys, Mestemaker has captured the attention of national draft analysts. In an October matchup against a tough Houston team, Mestemaker threw for 365 yards and made impressive throws throughout the game. During a clash against No. 6 Oregon on Sept. 12, Mestemaker helped seal a 39-31 victory with a 10-yard touchdown run where he dove into the end zone from just outside the 3-yard line. Later, on third-and-10 from North Texas’ 1-yard line, Mestemaker tight-roped the back of the end zone—avoiding what play-by-play announcer Evan Stockton described as a Dan Orlovsky moment
—and fired a 19-yard pass to the sideline to Simeon Evans.
The 20-year-old Mestemaker oozes upside, as the 6-3 215-pounder is a legitimate dual-threat player with exceptional creativity inside and outside of the pocket.
Field Yates, ESPN analyst, via Bleacher Report
Through six games this season, Mestemaker has completed 67 percent of his pass attempts for 1,940 yards, 16 touchdowns, and six interceptions, while adding 142 yards and two scores on the ground. His mobility and off-platform throwing skills have pushed him to the forefront of early draft discussions.
Arch Manning Faces Scrutiny in Early Rankings
Texas quarterback Arch Manning has faced intense scrutiny and a national microscope following struggles and a rough game against Florida. Yahoo Sports analyst Nate Tice defended the Texas prospect’s long-term potential on an episode of the “Football 301” podcast, pointing to his pocket presence, willingness to push the ball downfield, size, athleticism, and a good arm under pressure despite underwhelming box scores. Tice noted that Manning is a very, very good athlete who is going to run a 4.5 if he runs the 40.
Manning fell out of the top tier in early projections. In Yates’ latest mock draft, Notre Dame’s CJ Carr and Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss joined Mestemaker as the other quarterbacks selected within the opening ten picks. Carr has posted a 66.8 percent completion rate for 1,639 yards and 16 touchdowns with one interception this season, offering an appealing option for franchises seeking long-term stability at the position. During a difficult outing, Carr marched the Fighting Irish down to the 9-yard line with four seconds left before his final attempt fell short.
Projected Top Ten Selection Order
The early draft order relies on the inverse of NFL standings through Week 6, paired with strength of schedule calculations.
| Pick | Team | Projected Selection | Position and School |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Chargers | Jeremiah Smith | WR, Ohio State |
| 2 | Miami Dolphins | CJ Carr | QB, Notre Dame |
| 3 | Tennessee Titans | Drew Mestemaker | QB, Oklahoma State |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Colin Simmons | EDGE, Texas |
| 5 | Washington Commanders | Leonard Moore | CB, Notre Dame |
| 6 | New York Jets (via Dallas) | Darian Mensah | QB, Miami |
| 7 | Philadelphia Eagles | Trevor Goosby | OT, Texas |
| 8 | Houston Texans | Jordan Seaton | OT, LSU |
| 9 | Arizona Cardinals | Kelley Jones | CB, Mississippi State |
| 10 | Clemson / Prospects | Ashton Hampton | CB, Clemson |
Franchises Position for Roster Adjustments
The Los Angeles Chargers sit winless at the bottom of the league standings, prompting early speculation about adding explosive playmakers around Justin Herbert.
The Philadelphia Eagles face questions regarding Nick Sirianni’s job security following a 2-4 start, alongside planning for the future after Lane Johnson suddenly retired. The Washington Commanders spent heavily in free agency to land edge rusher Odafe Oweh, yet they continue struggling to impact opposing quarterbacks.
A wide receiver has not been drafted No. 1 overall since 1996, but scouts note that that milestone remains a realistic possibility as the college football schedule unfolds toward the winter months.
The Tennessee Titans hold a rich draft history that includes selecting quarterback Cam Ward with the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, and trading their top pick back in 2016 to the Los Angeles Rams in exchange for a massive package of two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and two third-round picks.
Evaluators continue monitoring player developments closely, knowing that injuries, breakouts, and coaching changes will continuously alter draft boards before the selection event begins, as South Carolina edge rusher Dylan Stewart looks to build upon his performances despite missing time due to team-imposed suspensions or dealing with injuries.