2024-04-07 03:08:43
New Delhi: The tussle continues between the IMF and its Executive Director Krishnamurthy Subramanian over India’s GDP growth estimates. The IMF had shied away from Subramanian’s estimate. On this, Subramanian has said that IMF’s GDP growth estimates for India have been consistently wrong but their estimates have been accurate. The IMF had projected India’s economy to grow at a rate of eight percent annually by 2047, but IMF spokesperson Julie Kozak had said that this is Subramanian’s personal opinion and does not represent the International Monetary Fund. Subramanian has previously served as the Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India. IMF had clarified that Subramanian’s recent statement regarding India’s GDP growth is not an official statement of the IMF. He had expressed this estimate as a representative of India. Following the IMF’s clarification, Subramanian said in a post on X, ‘During my tenure at IMFNews, IMF staff estimates about India’s growth rate have been consistently wrong. India’s growth rate has been more than 7%, while all IMF staff estimates have been less than 7%. On the contrary, I have made accurate predictions. See my September-21st prediction. I had predicted India’s growth rate to be more than 7% in this decade. It stood at 9.7% in FY 21-22 and 7.0% in FY 22-23 while it is estimated to be 7.6% in FY 23-24. The figures speak!’
What is going on in IMF? Govt backtracks on its own top executive’s 8% growth forecast for India
what do the statistics say
Subramanian said that on the contrary, if we examine the projections of the IMF staff, for the financial year 23-24, they had projected the Indian economy to grow at a growth rate of 6.1% in November 2022 and January 2023. In April 2023, they reduced it to 5.9%. In November 2023 he predicted 6.3%. And the real growth estimate (NSSO) for FY 23-24 stood at 7.6% which will be revised to 8%. It is clear that the error margin of IMF staff is very high. There is a difference of 1.9% between the estimates for November 2022 and January 2023, 2.1% between the estimates for April 2023 and 1.7% between the estimates for November 2023. Similarly, the IMF staff estimate for FY 23-24 is also below 7%. It is clear from the data whose estimate is accurate. Do I need to say anything more?
Subramanian recently said that if India continues its current policies and accelerates reforms, India can grow at an annual growth rate of 8 percent till 2047. The kind of growth that India has recorded in the last 10 years, if we can double down on the good policies implemented in the last 10 years and accelerate reforms, then India can grow at eight percent annually from here till 2047. Can move forward. The IMF had earlier projected a medium-term growth rate of 6.5 percent for India. This was slightly improved from previous estimates. The IMF is preparing to release updated estimates in the coming days. Kozak said that information about the latest growth projections will be given in the next report of the World Economic Outlook.