Finland could announce its desire to join NATO on Thursday 12 May. Independent since 1917, the small Nordic country of 5.5 million inhabitants, which shares 1,340 kilometers of borders with Russia, is a member of the European Union, but not militarily aligned. While the majority of Finns have always been against membership, public opinion has shifted since February 24 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
How do you explain this paradigm shift?
This change is not so sudden. We have continuously assessed the security situation. We have prepared for all kinds of crisis scenarios, including a military threat. In the program of the government of Sanna Marin and many previous governments, there is an option that allows us to ask to join NATO, if the security environment changes and it becomes necessary. Since our accession to the European Union, we have chosen not to be neutral, but firmly anchored in the Western sphere. Joining NATO can be seen as a very natural completion of our Western integration.
What has the war in Ukraine changed for Finns?
Nobody really predicted what happened on February 24. We couldn’t imagine Putin being cruel enough to start a war in Ukraine. This caused a debate here. Despite intense engagement and attempts to somehow control and contain Russia and Putin’s action, we have failed. As our President Sauli Niinistö said: the masks have fallen. We have seen the true face of Russia and Vladimir Putin: that of a ruthless dictator, capable of attacking an innocent neighboring country, who has expressed his desire to be a member of the European Union and one day of the NATO. In this context, the reaction of the Finns was understandable.
How did the political discussions go?
Public support was not enough. We needed a parliamentary process. To this end, the government has prepared a report analyzing the changes in our security environment. [publié le 13 avril]. It served as the basis for debate in Parliament. The issue has been discussed in depth in each parliamentary committee. We’ve heard from dozens of security experts.
Now the time has come to make a decision. The President of the Republic said publicly that he would announce his position on Thursday May 12. It will probably be the day when the Prime Minister also expresses her personal opinion. As we speak, it seems highly probable that the outcome [de ce processus] is in favor of joining NATO and that we submit an application for membership quickly.
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