2023-08-11 19:31:40
Mortgages receive good news. For the first time in many months, everything indicates that the situation will give them a little respite. The Euribor has been constantly growing since December 2021, but August may be the turning point.
The average for this month stands at 4.06% for now, which represents one tenth less compared to July. It represents the first fall in more than a year and a half, and even if it is slight, it may invite optimism.
Let us remember that the year 2021 closed with this index in negative, with -0.5%. But the trend took a radical turn from that date, affecting especially those who had a variable-rate mortgage. It also harmed those who requested new loans to get a living place.
Over the months, both the credit and the monthly installments increased. It was from 2022 when that ascending line began, although it did so starting from negative ground. That can be considered something anomalous, since in principle the Euribor should never be in that position.
It was not until April 2022 when it returned to register positive values. It was the first time this had happened in six years. At that time, inflation was already skyrocketing and government intervention was taken for granted. European Central Bank to contain it.
The Euribor has the ability to predict what will happen in the short term. That is why it began its rise at the beginning of the year before the European body will begin to increase the precio of money. From there the rates did not stop growing until they climbed to 4.25%.
| Photobyphotoboy
Parallel to the rates, the Euribor has also been rising non-stop, registering the fastest increase in its history. The forecasts suggested that during this year the European Central Bank would stop this upward trend at some point.
This made it easier in some way for the index that is taken as a reference for mortgages to record more contained increases. In fact, since March these increases have been limited to 0.1% per month.
Some relief is detected in August
In August a different scenario is drawn. It is going from moderation in the escalation to a possible descent, publishes ABC. And it does not seem circumstantial, since we have been in this situation for two weeks now.
During the last week of July, this downward trend began to be detected. In the middle of that month it did not reach 4.2% and at this moment it barely exceeds 4%. In addition, the average for the month up to August 8 is below that of July.
| 89Stocker, Gpoint Studio
Experts are somewhat surprised by what is happening. Especially since on July 27 the ECB raised interest rates to 4.25%. The normal thing is that the Euribor will not take long to rise almost immediately, since it usually moves even above the main rate.
However, the opposite has happened, with a drop in the cam compared to July. They indicate that this has analysts somewhat puzzled. Especially given the forecast of the European Central Bank to continue increasing rates.
At the moment it is unknown what will happen from September, when the body that directs meets Christine Lagarde. There are doubts as to whether it will climb to 4.5% or hold back.
Experts suspect that a new rise could still be registered, although members of the entity hint at a brake. In any case, this decision is subject to inflation and financial stability in the coming weeks.
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