Extremadura Election Results: A Pyrrhic Victory for the PP, Disaster for the PSOE, and a Rising Vox
The regional elections in Extremadura delivered a paradoxical outcome, offering a qualified win for the People’s Party (PP) while leaving its regional leader, María Guardiola, with a precarious path forward and signaling a dramatic collapse for the Socialist Party (PSOE). While the PP can claim a marginal victory, the results ultimately strengthened the far-right Vox party, a consequence Guardiola aimed to avoid.
The PSOE experienced a stunning defeat, losing 13 points in a result one analyst described as a “hemorrhage” requiring immediate intervention. This marks the beginning of a difficult period for the party as it heads into other regional elections.
Guardiola called the election as a show of strength against Vox, which had previously refused to support her budget proposal. Instead, she inadvertently bolstered the party led by Santiago Abascal, which doubled its representation from five to eleven seats, increasing its share of the vote from 8.1% to 17.3%. In a region historically dominated by the two main parties, Vox’s gains demonstrate a significant shift in the political landscape. “If anyone doubted the PP could ignore the challenge emerging to its right, these elections will dispel that notion,” a senior official stated.
The PP can point to gaining one additional seat compared to the 2023 election, but this marginal improvement offers little real relief. Guardiola’s underlying challenges remain unresolved. She may be able to govern in a minority if Vox abstains from the investiture vote, but the situation will quickly revert to its previous instability. The extent to which Abascal will pressure Guardiola, given his open disdain for her, remains to be seen, particularly as remaining outside the regional government has proven beneficial for Vox.
Sources within the PP leadership in Madrid, known as Génova, will reportedly communicate privately to Guardiola that her campaign was underwhelming. She sought to campaign independently, but, as one commentator noted, “she would have benefited from a parachute.” The campaign was characterized by limited public appearances and culminated in an unusual “zambomba flamenca” – a traditional flamenco gathering – with only a brief statement from Guardiola expressing her contentment.
“I don’t want to hold a rally. Everything has been said. We’ve talked a lot. There’s a lot of noise outside. We have a lot of joy, let others be angry,” Guardiola reportedly said, revealing a campaign strategy that prioritized avoiding scrutiny from journalists and engaging directly with loyal PP supporters.
The campaign took a further turn when Guardiola abruptly shifted focus to denounce a nonexistent conspiracy following a minor robbery at a rural post office. She even recorded a dramatic video claiming, “they are stealing our democracy,” offering no evidence and disregarding reality. This move, critics argue, demonstrated a willingness to appeal to voters with unsubstantiated claims.
“If you behave like a political influencer, the path to a comfortable majority is fraught with obstacles,” one political observer commented.
Guardiola faces a difficult road ahead, while the PSOE is reeling from a near-catastrophic result, reminiscent of the party’s decline in Andalusia. The outcome will undoubtedly fuel the PP’s narrative across Spain, at least until the elections in Aragón in February. Exceeding 40% of the vote and leaving the PSOE more than ten points behind – after the two parties were tied in 2023 – fulfills the ambitions of PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo.
The PSOE’s candidate, Miguel Ángel Gallardo, was already hampered by legal proceedings related to the brother of Pedro Sánchez. His attempt to secure legal immunity by seeking a position in the regional assembly also failed. His inability to inspire socialist voters contributed to the party’s demobilization, exacerbated by an almost 8% drop in voter turnout.
Symbolically, Gallardo was defeated by the PP in his hometown of Villanueva de la Serena, where he served as mayor for 21 years. The PP secured 38.6% of the vote compared to the PSOE’s 30.5%. “Even his own town didn’t want him,” one source noted. Gallardo acknowledged the “very bad” result on Sunday night but did not announce his resignation, suggesting that news may come on Monday.
Guardiola now relies on a strengthened Vox to form a government in Extremadura, while the PSOE faces a profound crisis. The other left-wing parties, Unidas por Extremadura, saw modest gains, increasing from four to seven seats, validating their strategy of maintaining a coalition between Podemos and Izquierda Unida under the leadership of Irene de Miguel. “We are the beacon of hope for transformative left-wing politics. Unity is the way forward,” De Miguel stated.
