DECRYPTION – Despite the fall in wheat prices since this summer, levels remain historically high. Inflation, conflict and the climate accentuate the risks.
The surge in wheat prices has subsided. The cereal, at the heart of global food concerns after the invasion of Ukraine, has returned to its pre-war level. Its price, below 289 euros per ton on the European market on Thursday, has fallen by almost 50% since last May. The Russian aggression, launched on February 24, created a shock wave on the world agricultural markets.
Both countries are major exporters of grain, sunflower and fertilizer. Russia then realized 20% of world wheat sales, Ukraine 10%. Very quickly, the conflict led to Moscow blocking Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea. Prices jumped as markets feared oil-like embargoes and sanctions. Falling exports and price inflation have made it difficult for a growing number of fragile countries to obtain this staple food. And fear of a global food crisis has spread.
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However, the damage was limited…