At the end of this year, there will be a shortage of around 56,000 people in hospitals, nursing homes, youth and disabled care, among others, according to the forecast. Especially from 2026, that number will start to increase sharply. In 2032, the shortage threatens to increase to more than 155,000. Insofar as the government measures can be calculated, they seem to help somewhat, but there is still a shortage of about 137,000 employees.
According to Minister Helder, there is a risk that so many people will be needed for care and welfare in the future that too few people will soon be available for education, construction and the energy sector. The government therefore believes that no more than one in six employees should work in the healthcare sector. That tipping point is expected to be reached in 2029.
“This shows that it is really necessary to work on slowing down the demand for labor in the care sector, by initiating a transition to suitable and labour-saving care and increasing employment contracts within the care sector,” said the minister in her letter to parliament. The forecast is prepared once a year. The picture this year is slightly more negative than last year.