“The facts show that it is simply impossible to convince V. Putin about Ukraine. It is strategically necessary for him to prevent Ukraine from becoming a bastion that the West can use to threaten Russia. He has taken personal responsibility for achieving this result and probably thinks it is worth almost any price. Trying to force him to surrender is a futile exercise that simply wastes lives and resources,” the newspaper said.
It is noted that there is only one real possibility to end the war in Ukraine under conditions acceptable to the West and Kiev: “to wait for V. Putin”.
War is Putin’s choice
When Putin ordered the invasion, it was a war of his own choosing. There was no immediate threat to Russia’s security that would require a large-scale invasion of a neighboring country’s territory.
And since this is a war of choice, Putin has the ability to stop it. This war is not existential for Russia. The withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine would not pose a threat to the existence of the Russian state and probably would not even pose a threat to V. Putin’s own rule. He could easily declare victory in Ukraine and launch an accompanying information campaign to justify his withdrawal, according to Foreign Policy.
V. Putin is not convincing
According to the paper, Putin’s attack on Ukraine is best understood as a misguided pre-emptive war launched to stop what Putin saw as a future threat to Russia’s security. At the same time, it was a surprisingly risky move by Putin, despite his previous efforts to reduce the use of Russian resources.
“Evidence shows that on the issue of Ukraine, V. Putin is simply impossible to convince, he is completely stubborn,” writes “Foreign Policy”.
The newspaper points out that the fact that this war is so out of step with Putin’s usual risk assessment means that he has made a strategic decision about Ukraine that he does not want to reverse. Therefore, it is unlikely that Western pressure will force him to change his mind and end the war on terms acceptable to Kiev and Washington.
A possible end-of-war scenario
If Putin does not want to end his attack on Ukraine, the war can only end in one of two ways: Russia will no longer be able to continue its invasion, or Putin will no longer be in power.
And as Foreign Policy points out, achieving the first outcome, which is to undermine Russia’s capabilities, is unrealistic because Putin can continue to throw troops and resources into battle, and the collapse of the Russian military is unlikely.
So there remains the second way to end the war: V. Putin’s withdrawal from the Kremlin.
“It is possible that he will leave voluntarily or be forced to leave; there is no doubt that he will die someday. Only when he is no longer in power will it be possible to start the real work related to the permanent settlement of the war in Ukraine,” the publication concludes.
Until then, Washington should focus on helping Ukraine hold the front line and prevent further Russian military gains while conserving its own resources. It’s an unsatisfactory and politically unpalatable approach, but it’s “the only real option,” according to Foreign Policy.
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2024-09-04 13:18:29