The government at its meeting must approve the implementation of “strategic initiatives” – 42 new projects with a total cost of about 4.6 trillion rubles. until 2024. Their main task is to supplement the basic strategy of the White House with new flexible instruments that will make it possible to change the nature of socio-economic development in the selected areas, from social to investment. New government spending on initiatives will amount to RUB 0.5 trillion over three years, adding an additional 0.3% per year to GDP growth. However, the government does not focus on GDP, but on the practical evidence of the results of projects to improve the quality of life in the Russian Federation by 2024, although the strategic goal is to expand the medium-term development prospects until 2030 and make the achievement of national goals more reliable.

Work on the preparation of strategic initiatives – a system of 42 development projects that the government has been engaged in since the end of 2020 – has been completed: on October 7, they are to be approved at a government meeting. Although practical work has already been carried out on most projects since the summer of 2021, the White House decided not to rush with their full approval until the budget for 2022-2024 appears in the State Duma. At the same time, the issue of initiatives for the current budget is not too fundamental: new federal state funding for projects for three years in the final version costs just over 0.5 trillion rubles, or about 170 billion rubles. per year on average, these are tangible, but not fundamental at the macroscale costs, moreover, some of the 42 initiatives cost a minimum budget, are financed on a repayable basis from the NWF, or do not require budgetary investments.

The macroeffect from the initiatives is expected in the form of an additional 0.3% GDP growth per year from 2023 – this is a fairly high level of investment multiplication, but the scale of projects itself does not require changes in the budget system or correction of tax redistribution.

Nevertheless, for the government of Mikhail Mishustin, strategic initiatives that were developed without advertising (although not in secret – see Kommersant, February 8, July 20), look extremely important – this is the main addition to the plan to achieve national goals, which after the presidential decree Vladimir Putin is subordinate to the activities of the executive power in the Russian Federation, the budget, state programs, the system of national projects and much more in the activities of the authorities.

Strategic initiatives in the system are an actual mid-term addition to the basic strategy with dedicated goals, its own technology for implementation, management and control, and with its own specific tasks. For 29 initiatives, their own federal projects (FP) are created, 4 are already being implemented, another 10 will become part of national projects as such. Recall that we are talking about “initiatives” in the exact sense of this term: the selection of 42 projects was carried out by working groups led by deputy prime ministers, the groups selected 250 initial initiatives, which were then brought to a single format, evaluated by their effectiveness according to multidimensional criteria and by cost , systemic effects and interconnectedness.

But in essence, there were two main selection criteria. The first is a direct impact on the horizon until 2024 on the well-being, quality of life and opportunities of people, the “spectacular” implementation: the White House needs quick results, among other things, to increase confidence in the implemented basic strategy until 2030 and to a large extent to “inspire” social economic development. Second, the same projects should, in the long term until 2030, make a more reliable trajectory for achieving the five national development goals and give flexibility to the implementation of the national plan: be adequate to new “post-like” opportunities for the Russian economy and social sphere, including changes in the structure of employment and the labor market, risks of “financial bubbles”, “carbon transformation”, increased cross-border competition in all markets, growth of global inflation and volatility of world markets, digitalization entrepreneurship. This is a non-standard and rather complicated approach to development planning due to its technological effectiveness: in large economies, only Great Britain managed to announce such approaches in 2021, mainly as a consequence of Brexit.

The stated goals of strategic initiatives, the full parameters and composition of which will be announced today, therefore look “social”.

Moreover, this applies not only to the block of ten initiatives (including the project on the rapid reform of the systems of medical rehabilitation, vocational education, medical control and import of personnel), but also “breakthrough” projects on drones, municipal transport in cities, private housing construction, roads: the social aspect Bely The house also sees in the correction of the legal framework – the strategy involves the reengineering of the rules of construction and industrial production, which should strengthen entrepreneurial opportunities, which also see a social dimension. Especially in this area, the initiative “Client-centric” is significant: the experience gained during the creation of the MFC and at the start of the transition to electronic document flow in 2015-2020 is designed to demonstrate to citizens that the “digital / client-centric state” is not a slogan and not narrow reforms in a separate area, but part of the overall strategy until 2030. The “quality breakthrough” that the White House is counting on in 2022–2024 with a very moderate budget, but in a very busy schedule (the strategic initiative management system is designed for weekly control of changes), it makes no sense to imitate in this project design – for the first time, the goals are set as measurable , practically significant and, in principle, unattainable by good market conditions. For the government, this is a stake, but the fulfillment of obligations is intended to change a lot in public sentiment.

Dmitry Butrin


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