The increase in migration from Nicaragua -which mostly prefers the United States and Costa Rica- is part of a larger migration phenomenon, in which some four million Latin Americans changed their country of residence in 2022, according to the study “Migration Latin America and the Caribbean International: in numbers”, prepared by Manuel Orozco, director of the Migration and Remittances Program of the Inter-American Dialogue.
Migrants from Latin America were 33 million in 2015, a number that increased to -at least- 43 million in 2022. That number grew by four million, between 2020 and 2022.
Last year, the flow of remittances sent to the country by Nicaraguans abroad amounted to 3,224.9 million dollars, which is 50.2% higher than the amount received in 2021, which was USD 2,146.9 million, according to data Officials published by the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN).
That represented 21% of Nicaragua’s gross domestic product (GDP), although there are at least four other countries in the region with better or equal performance: Honduras, which received the equivalent of 29% of its GDP; El Salvador (27%), Jamaica (26%), and Guatemala, with 21%. All of them have a GDP greater than that of Nicaragua, which means that the amounts received are greater.
It is estimated that there are some 1.1 million Nicaraguans living abroad, and that some 295,000 of them left the country as of 2018, which explains why remittance flows more than doubled, compared to the 1,390.8 million received in 2017, in the year prior to the outbreak of the April Rebellion, which was what accelerated the exodus of Nicaraguans.
The data analyzed by Orozco show that those who believe that it is convenient for Nicaragua to continue expelling citizens so that they send more remittances are mistaken, as the dictatorship seems to be calculating, since “over time, the growth of migration slows down when the diaspora is more than 20% of its population: 1% increase in migrants relative to their home population, growth slows [de las remesas enviadas] in 2.7%”.
Repression, hope and poverty
When characterizing why Central Americans emigrate, the study notes that the motives of the Nicaraguans are economic and aspirational, as well as those linked to political conditions, with an intention that is directly connected to the strengthening of the dictatorship.
Looking at it more specifically, and listing the reasons that drive Nicaraguans to emigrate, he points out that “there are four general factors that explain it,” the first being the perception that economic conditions will be worse, and that the country is going downhill. wrong direction.
The second is to believe that Ortega will have more support; knowing that the elections were illegitimate, and that “you can’t trust the people” after the elections. The third, having a family income of less than US$500; (in fact, less than 20,000 córdobas), as well as other factors, including being under 35 years of age and living in Managua.
This, in turn, is part of the more general reasons why people emigrate, starting with those that are linked to the economy, such as unemployment, particularly in informal economies, which lead these people to receive incomes below the equivalent of $400 per month.
There are also social reasons, linked to a pessimistic vision of the present and the future; others that he calls ‘transnational’, such as when the citizen has relatives abroad; he receives remittances, or seeks access to the knowledge market, without ruling out those of a political nature: he distrusts the system; perceives a high concentration of power, suffers threats and intimidation. Finally, those of an environmental nature are listed, which include tremors, hurricanes, droughts, floods, pandemics, etc.
All of this leads to the fact that the nationalities with the greatest migratory flow are those coming from more politically unstable or repressive countries, such as Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, the document asserts.
Migration will continue
Migration being a phenomenon that -even with ups and downs- only seems to be perpetuated over time, the report admits that “migration is likely to continue, but not above 7% annual growth as in the last three years” and how, Regardless of the cause, “labour mobility is integrating Latin America and the Caribbean into the global economy.”
Orozco explains that “the continuity of human mobility demonstrates the presence of a trend, a condition that allows taking into account critically important tools for leveraging or taking advantage of migration,” referring to the fact that the effects of migration on the economic, social and political, but we must take advantage of it.
However, he points out that in order to successfully implement solutions to the problem of the growing number of migrants to the United States and other countries within Latin America and the Caribbean, it will require “interventions that can have both a regional scope and a country-by-country approach.” country”.
The aggravating circumstance represented by the fact that the region is led by some “uncooperative partners and players” is also pointed out, referring to regimes that antagonize the United States.
Some of the proposed solutions include providing humanitarian assistance; define and implement a development and democratization strategy for the issuing countries; carry out efforts for the regularization and inclusion of migrants, as well as other transnational strategies.