2024-09-12 12:01:00
TRIBUNE/ANSWOR (part 2/4) The only hope for the French industry lies in the rational restraint of the decision-makers of the Sino-Russian alliance who will limit themselves only to a coherent response, instead of using their power to cause an economic war and collapse in radical way and within a limited time not only the industrial sector of the French economy, but of the whole EU, by removing them from important imports.
When talking about the figures for the “miracle” of the renewal achieved by the presidency, several elements should be remembered. According to the latest statistics available, French industrial production shows a total decrease of 3.1% for the period from 05/2023 to 05/2024.
According to the INSEE indices from July 2024 on the business climate, apart from the specific period of Covid, the latter is at its lowest since April 2015 for the service sector and, for the industry, at least most in the past 11 years – since July 2013.
In the industrial sector, business activity was the lowest since April 2016. In the retail industry, apart from the fall in April 2022 linked to the uncertainty created by the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine, the business climate is the lowest since Nov. Year 2014.
About 500 more new factory sites in France in 2023 compared to 2016, the Elysée communications “forgot” to mention that the French production, for its part, fell by 4.45% for the same period. During the period between 2012 and Macron’s rise to power in 2017, he, on the contrary, experienced an increase of 1.2%.
As for transportation infrastructure under Macron’s five-year terms, it has collapsed easily.
By pointing out the positive balance of job creation in the industry since 2017, once again, they “forgot” to show that today France is in 22nd place in Europe from 27 in terms of employment compared to the total.
The share of industry in France’s GDP in 2016, before Emmanuel Macron took power, was 17.43%; in 2022, at the end of the five years of his mandate, the same percentage is 17.38% (Statista), which is nothing more than the manifestation of a complete suspension from the histories developed by the Elysée.
The PMI industrial production index is at 42.1, which is the lowest since April 2009, excluding the Covid period and a post-Covid peak of December 2023.
With a long-term vision, national statistics clearly and unequivocally show that the project of the modernization of France by President Macron’s party, a project which he promoted as a major project for his two five-year terms, cannot be staff of great greatness. success. And it should not be overlooked that we are actually talking about the part of the national policy where the effort and investment are among the most.
The great and inevitable dependence of French industry on imports of energy and essential raw materials from countries, in which France shows itself in an increasingly hostile way, the French worker is indifferent in more expensive than that of a large number of competitors on the world market and so on. many other elements of specific restrictions to production on French soil make the idea of success of the French innovation industry illusory and completely cut off from economic reality.
The result of Macron’s administration, which is closely related to that of the EU, has directly led to the impotence not only of development, but also of the simple stagnation of France and European energy companies.
The sustainable survival of the latter can only be ensured with a shift to countries providing access to energy at affordable prices in order to remain competitive within the global market. In particular, the United States of America is today the main beneficiary of the new economy of the European Union and France.
In the medium and long term, the process of deindustrialization of France will only increase and will only aggravate the already significant imbalance in foreign trade, which I will talk more. This imbalance will only be measured to the extent of the restructuring of the industry which is a greater risk than experienced between 1979 and 1984, when the fall of the French industry was the worst in Europe.
French industrial production risks being less and less competitive on the world market and withdrawing slowly into the intra-European market, whose leader will ensure the protection which is already in effect. Protection is indeed a double-edged sword with a price that goes with it and which will also have to be paid.
Protectionism or neoliberalism?
The answer is wrong. On the one hand, a protectionist trade policy in a conscious and reckless manner can only lead to a serious economic downturn.
Do not forget the lessons of history: it was the protectionist trade policy which was the main cause of the Great Depression that the world experienced from 1929 to 1939. The establishment of special protection measures in industrialized countries caused financial crisis and recession the economy of the beginning. The 1930s became a global economic depression.
The increase in import duties to help certain sectors of the national economy inevitably leads to retaliatory measures, pure or asymmetrical, from countries that are hurt by protectionist measures. The only result is a reduction in the return of international trade of the countries involved.
But, on the other hand, neoliberalism as we have known it for decades can only be beneficial to Western countries, including France, on the condition that it applies to “partner” countries whose domestic and foreign policy is subject to the will of the West. Decolonization, as we know it since decolonization: through pressure by international business institutions controlled by the West, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund; through the installation of rulers and governments in countries that are concentrated under the control of Western power and, where appropriate, through the organization of movements d’état, see the launch of wars to restore order to the “dominant” relationship.
The war in Ukraine has proven to be an accelerating element in the reshaping of the global political-economic scene in which the submission of the non-Western world to the neoliberal rules of the West will become increasingly complicated to maintain and to was developed by the latter.
Likewise, given the rise in power of non-Western economies that have more and more pressure forces and capacities for asymmetrical and asymmetrical responses vis-à-vis Western power that is dominant, the strengthening of protection measures by Western markets cannot be considered salutary. solution.
Therefore, the new global realities currently developing can only make surprising discoveries about the future of the French economy.
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