Indeed, few political figures have clearly stated their intentions to run in this election, while others, led by current President Emmanuel Macron, have not yet announced their candidacy, maintaining the suspense until the end. The game of alliances and the rapprochement between the different political currents are also unclear.
“A year before this French presidential election, the casting of candidates and political forces present is not clear and identified,” political scientist Mustapha Tossa analyses for MAP.
Until now, it has not been shown that President Emmanuel Macron could be in a power configuration to seek a second term, while the oppositions on both the right and the left miss no opportunity to pour out their criticism on his government and his management of many thorny issues that have marked his five-year term, starting with the yellow vest crisis, the pension reform, the controversial bill on “separatism” and radical Islam or the management of the Covid-19 health crisis.
Added to this are the various polls which reveal a decline in favourable opinions towards Mr Macron.
Emmanuel Macron is “watched” by the “fear of the “François Hollande syndrome” in 2016 when the latter was forced to throw in the towel due to poor polls in front of the representative of the extreme right Marine Le Pen, believes Mustapha Tossa.
But if Mr. Macron were to run for a second presidential term, he would be favored by the fact that he would be positioning himself in a chessboard where both the left and the right are unable to produce a “serious” leadership capable of ensuring passage to the second round, the political scientist specifies. The left because it is “undermined” by the multitude of currents, whether socialist, communist, far-left or green. And the right because it is still “paralyzed by the war of egos and chapels.”
Faced with this situation where the political landscape remains highly fragmented, observers agree that Emmanuel Macron, who defended a centrist program during his campaign for the 2017 presidential election, is currently leaning more and more toward right-wing ideas in order to attract the sympathy of voters from this movement.
Faced with a left that “is politically dead as a whole, Emmanuel Macron has set his sights on the right, trying to attract its votes and seduce its elite and its human resources,” explains Mr. Tossa.
According to him, Emmanuel Macron has “reasons to be worried”. The Republican front is no longer what it once was when it formed a cordon against the access of the extreme right to power. It is no longer as solid and as consensual, which has pushed some political think tanks to predict that this time, the icon of the extreme right, Marine Le Pen, carried by favorable winds, could well break the glass ceiling that had always prevented her from rallying the majority of French people to her cause.
While waiting for things to become clearer, the political class will be there next June with a full-scale test, namely the regional and departmental elections, which should give a foretaste of the different trends and alliances that could emerge in view of the presidential election.
A few weeks before this election, alliances between Les Républicains (LR-right) and the presidential party, La République en Marche (LREM) have been announced in certain departments, while many ministers have announced their candidacies under the banners of the traditional right.
These alliances aim to divert the reservoir of LR votes towards Macron, believes Mr. Tossa, who nevertheless warns against the risk of a “punitive approach” which could cause many LR votes to swing towards Marine Le Pen.
“And the whole secret of this election is to know the depth and importance of this postponement which could tip the balance towards one or the other,” adds the political scientist.
2024-09-15 10:02:20