2023-11-08 15:25:00
Just a year ago, ministers in turtlenecks signaled the general mobilization: three concomitant crises – gas with the war in Ukraine, hydraulics with drought and nuclear power with a stress corrosion defect – put the France on the verge of a real risk of blackout.
On Wednesday November 8, the tone was much more relaxed in the RTE premises during the presentation of the prospects for security of supply for the coming winter: “All the parameters are better oriented”, reassures the boss of RTE, Xavier Piechaczyk.
Ranked on a scale of 1 to 5, the risk of cuts is even considered “very low” in November (level 1) then “low” (level 2) for the following months, a confidence confirmed by the markets, where spot prices electricity reached 80 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) at the beginning of October, compared to 225 euros/MWh a year earlier. Certainly, we remain far from the 55 euros/MWh displayed in 2019, but it is significantly better.
Production is recovering
At the end of a dark period, the stars are aligning again, details RTE, with electricity production still recovering but better oriented. After reaching its historic low in 2022 (with 279 TWh), the production of the nuclear fleet should recover to 300-330 TWh in 2023. “A notable proportion of the nuclear fleet was able to be controlled and repaired during the year », underlines RTE. Today, 38 reactors are in operation. The availability of the park reached 40 GW, or 10 GW more than a year earlier, and this availability should reach 50 GW in January, at the time of the severe cold.
READ ALSO Electricity prices: Germany ends its war against French nuclear powerOther reassuring points: while hydraulic production last year was “the lowest since 1976”, the dams are full again. Gas stocks “are almost 100% full”… And the production of renewable electricity is also expected to increase. After years of waiting, a first offshore wind farm – that of Saint-Nazaire in Loire-Atlantique (0.5 GW) – has been in service for a year, and two new parks, those of Fécamp, in Seine-Maritime, and Saint-Brieuc, in Côtes-d’Armor, (1 additional GW in total) have started producing and should soon increase their power.
READ ALSO Development of wind power: the Court of Auditors describes an unmanned linerA much more favorable situation but which remains fragile: according to the calculations of the Point – RTE has not yet carried out its own and promises them for the coming weeks – France should be able to mobilize, in December and January, 74 GW of power to overcome peak consumption, compared to 66 GW in January 2023. significant flexibility, which however remains below the usual needs on winter evenings, when the peak oscillates between 80 and 90 GW swallowed at the same time – the historic peak, in 2012, even exceeded 102 GW.
Sobriety, the key to a winter without interruptions
Hence the insistence of Xavier Piechaczyk, who fears that the French will renounce the gestures of sobriety agreed to last winter: “Less risk does not mean no risk at all. » On the contrary, the outlook for winter will only remain favorable if the significant drop in electricity consumption, of around 8%, observed last winter, continues or even increases.
“France was able to get through the peaks thanks to two main levers: sobriety, and massive imports from our neighbors,” he recalls. The Ecowatt system, implemented a year ago and downloaded more than 3 million times since then, therefore remains in full force. This platform allows businesses, communities and individuals to be warned of possible tensions on the electricity network three days in advance, and to adopt essential eco-friendly actions.
READ ALSO How to limit the inevitable very strong growth in the price of electricity Three levels alert it. Green (all is well) and orange (the situation is tense): efforts must be intensified. Red: without immediate collective mobilization, cuts are inevitable. A final level which should not be observed this winter. Except in the event of a combination of several hazards: high consumption, limitation of imports, cold spell, delays in the maintenance of power plants… Improbable, of course. But we will remember, with Edgar Morin, that the “improbable has often happened in history. »
#France #spend #winter #fear