The euphoria of both camps having pushed aside the barely expressed extreme right, France quickly plunged into uncertainty after the final proclamation of the results. None of the blocs formed was able to obtain an absolute majority.
The left alliance, brought together under the New Popular Front, obtained 182 seats in the National Assembly, followed by the presidential camp, under the banner of Ensemble, with 168 seats, then the RN and its allies with 143 seats, this which gives rise to a lower house which risks being ungovernable, unless political leaders enter into a logic of compromise with a view to a coalition capable of supporting a new government.
For the geopolitologist Emmanuel Dupuy, president of the Prospective and Security Institute in Europe (IPSE) and teacher of geopolitics at the Catholic University of Lille, “the risk of France’s ungovernability appeared as soon as the Assembly was dissolved. national, but has been strengthened today with political alliances which have not succeeded in achieving a clear majority and which will not be able to send a Prime Minister to Matignon.
Analyzing at the MAP microphone the results of this 2nd round of the French legislative elections, Mr. Dupuy put into perspective “the victory” or “the failure” of each of the political blocs which confronted each other during this election.
“Today we are faced with a heterogeneous configuration of the National Assembly, to the extent that the Left Alliance would have three, even four parliamentary groups, the so-called central bloc which was formed around the presidential camp managed to did well and came 2nd, then the National Rally, which, although it came third, made a considerable breakthrough, since it managed to double the number of its deputies in the chamber. Let us put the victory or failure of each side into perspective,” commented the French expert.
Asked about the possible scenarios for having a Prime Minister and a majority in the National Assembly, Mr. Dupuy estimated that “there is no governability possible for the moment, especially since none of the blocs “gave a positive sign on possible coalitions”, noting however that the centrist alliance could come to terms with other political forces, a little to the right, a little to the left to form a grand coalition.
“In this case we will be faced with a tricolor alliance a bit like the German one between the central bloc with its 168 seats, the Socialist Party or the Republicans which remains the most possible option,” he underlined.
The president of IPSE, however, ruled out the scenario of a technical government, defended by certain analysts, because it would be “illegitimate and would not reflect the will of the French who expressed themselves through the ballot boxes for three different blocs”.
And to add that a technical government would have only one mission “that is to carry out current affairs and wait for the next dissolution. However, as we have noted, the dissolution was of absolutely no use. It rather complicated things.”
As is republican tradition, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal presented this Monday the resignation of his government to the President of the Republic, who in the current context of the Olympic Games, asked him to remain in charge.
The president’s entourage, quoted by the media, affirms that the latter advocates balance and does not wish to make any decision before seeing the final configuration of the National Assembly.
But on the side of the New Popular Front, tempers are heating up. Its impatient leaders are stepping up to the plate and asking the President of the Republic to quickly appoint a new tenant in Matignon from their camp.
In the meantime, parliamentary life will resume at the National Assembly on July 18, notably with the election of its new president. The distribution of positions between the different groups represented will also be carried out and finally the development of the parliamentary calendar, including the much-anticipated discussion of the next budget.
2024-09-30 02:00:31