Wisconsin voters began casting early ballots Tuesday in a chaotic Democratic gubernatorial primary where insurgent democratic socialist Francesca Hong leads polls. The race has triggered sharp divisions among Democrats over electability against Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany in the August 11 election, with nearly 108,000 ballots already returned.
Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governor has devolved into a high-stakes fracture point for the party, pitting an energized progressive base against anxious moderates fearful of a general election blowout. As voters cast early in-person ballots across the state, the central friction centers on Francesca Hong, a 37-year-old state representative, part-time bartender, and dues-paying member of the Democratic Socialists of America.
Hong leads in recent Marquette Law School primary polling, commanding a significant advantage that has scrambled the field. A State Navigate poll conducted between July 23 and July 26 and sponsored by Main Street Action and UpNorthNews placed Hong at 44% among likely primary voters. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley trailed at 15%, while former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes sat at 14%. State Senator Kelda Roys, businessman Joel Brennan, and Sara Rodriguez each registered at 4%, with 13% of voters undecided or unremembered on absentee ballot returns.
Party Establishment Scrambles as Early Voting Opens
The primary schedule has been upended by a series of dramatic candidate exits and re-entries designed to consolidate the moderate vote and block Hong’s path. David Crowley dropped out on July 8, only to re-enter the race on July 17 backed by an endorsement from Governor Tony Evers, arriving just a day after Sara Rodriguez ended her campaign amid a campaign finance scandal.
Rather than halting the insurgent’s momentum, the establishment maneuvering cemented Hong’s frontrunner status. Ian Anderson, a Madison resident employed by the state Department of Natural Resources, voiced deep frustration while casting his early ballot.
Anderson praised Hong, calling her exactly the burst of energy we need
. Across the state lines of internal party debate, however, reactions could not be starker. Eighty miles away in Milwaukee, retired physician Steve Wiesner warned that if Hong wins the nomination, he would cast a ballot for a Republican in a general election for the first time in his life.
The General Election Electability Calculus
The underlying anxiety among centrist Democrats is whether a democratic socialist can win over older, whiter, and more rural demographics outside of the liberal strongholds of Madison and Milwaukee. The winner of the August 11 primary will face Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany in November. Tiffany enters the general election cycle backed by President Donald Trump in a state Trump carried in both 2016 and 2024, leaving Democrats fighting to retain the governor’s office and flip both chambers of the Legislature for the first time since 2010.
Voters backing Crowley and Barnes frequently pointed to electability concerns. Retired attorney John Hawley of Madison noted that it would be tough
for Hong to defeat Tiffany in November. I’d like to think I’m wrong, but north of Madison and Milwaukee I don’t think she’ll come across that well,
Hawley said.
Conversely, supporters like Nicole Santos argued that Hong represents the necessary shift to confront national headwinds. Santos maintained that Hong was the sole primary candidate possessing the fortitude
to stand up to Trump, adding, To get back on track we need to go a little further left.
The Final Debate and Unresolved Legal Challenges
During the primary field’s only debate, candidates attempted to differentiate themselves while largely avoiding direct attacks on Hong.
Worth a look
