The San Diego Padres are looking to gain ground in the NL West standings on Thursday, but the odds aren’t in their favor as they face the struggling St. Louis Cardinals.
Padres face tough odds in St. Louis matchup
A projection model is targeting the San Diego Padres as a longshot bet against the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday.
- The San Diego Padres are 4.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.
- The Cardinals have lost five of their last six games.
- A predictive model favors the Padres moneyline at +125.
- Christian Walker is projected for over 0.5 RBI, and the Mariners moneyline at +128 is also highlighted.
The San Diego Padres, currently sitting second in the National League West with a 55-47 record, face the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday. San Diego trails the division-leading Dodgers by 4.5 games. The Cardinals are in a slump, having dropped five of their last six contests, while the Padres aim to snap a two-game losing streak. Oddsmakers have pegged the Padres as +125 underdogs in this matchup.
Key longshot bets highlighted for Thursday’s slate
A computer model that simulates games 10,000 times has identified several “longshot” picks for Thursday’s slate of games. The model, which boasted a 46-43 record on top-rated MLB picks entering Week 17 of the 2025 season, suggests combining three specific bets for a potential +1183 payout.
Padres money line (+125)
Despite a recent series loss to the Miami Marlins, San Diego’s pitching has been a bright spot, ranking fourth in MLB with a 3.58 ERA. Yu Darvish (0-2, 6.08 ERA) is slated to start for the Padres against the Cardinals. St. Louis is coming off a 6-0 shutout loss to the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday. The model projects San Diego to win in over 50% of simulations, making the +125 moneyline attractive.
Christian Walker, Astros, Over 0.5 RBI (+150)
Houston’s Christian Walker has been on a hot streak, recording at least one RBI in four of his last five games, accumulating nine hits in that span. He currently has 52 RBI for the season. Walker faces Athletics pitcher Luis Severino (3-11, 5.10 ERA), who has struggled this season. The model projects Walker to drive in 0.6 runs in simulations, validating the +150 odds for this prop bet.
Mariners money line (+128)
The Seattle Mariners recently ended Milwaukee’s 11-game winning streak with a 1-0 victory, though they followed that with a 10-2 loss. Seattle previously defeated the Angels 3-2, a game in which Cal Raleigh did not play. Raleigh, who leads MLB with 39 home runs, should be well-rested after a day off. He could find success against Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi (4-6, 3.13 ERA), who has allowed 23 hits and 11 runs across four July starts. The model predicts a Seattle win in 57% of its simulations.
Additional MLB insights
For those seeking more predictions, the model also offers run line, total, and moneyline picks for every game, developed from 10,000 simulations. Additionally, expert picks from a handicapper with a 60-50-1 record on recent MLB bets are available.
