The Progress Party is clearly the largest party in the country according to Nettavisen’s fresh November poll from InFact.
The party receives a record-high support of 24.2 percent, while simultaneously increasing its lead over former government partner the Conservative Party, which gets 20.3 percent.
– There is a long way to the election, but it’s nice that more people want Progress Party policies, says party leader Sylvi Listhaug about the jubilant numbers from Nettavisen.
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The Progress Party has never before measured this high in InFact’s polls. This is the third consecutive month they measure the party as the largest.
The poll was conducted on November 4, with 1,124 people asked what they would vote for if there were parliamentary elections tomorrow, via automated telephone interviews.
Facts about the Parliamentary Poll
Conducted by InFact AS
Population Nationwide, residents aged 18 and over
Number of Interviews 1,124
Weighting Gender, age, geography, and party choice 2021
Margin of Error +/- 0.8 – 2.8% points (political poll)
Method InFact automated telephone interviews
Period November 4, 2024
– No money for Støre
It has been 13 years since the Progress Party has been measured this high on a national opinion poll in Norway.
– We have to go back to 2011 to find higher numbers for the Progress Party, says numbers analyst Johan Giertsen, who runs the website Pollofpolls, to Nettavisen.
Listhaug has previously told Nettavisen that it is natural for the largest party on the conservative side to get the prime minister after the election next year. Thus, the dream of a prime minister is very much alive with this poll.
Also read: Listhaug challenges Støre over asylum centers in third countries
At the same time, the Labour Party is experiencing the most significant decline, reaching a historically low support of 17.7 percent (-2.5). The Centre Party also receives low support, at 6.2 percent (-0.1).
FALLING MOST: Labour leader Jonas Gahr Støre is falling the most among all parties, down to 17.7 percent.
Photo: Amanda Pedersen Giske
Listhaug believes it is high time to replace Jonas Gahr Støre (Labour) as prime minister.
– Norway cannot afford four more years with the Støre government. However, it is not enough to replace the politicians if we do not also simultaneously change the politics, says Listhaug, emphasizing:
– Therefore, it is crucial to have a large and strong Progress Party if we are to secure the country a completely new political course that gives people and businesses more freedom and increased security.
Also read: Poll: More want Listhaug as prime minister
Stealing Conservative Voters
If the poll had been the election result, Listhaug’s wish
The red-green parties, the governing parties, Red, and MDG, would receive 79 mandates. That is the same number that the Conservatives and Progress Party have together.
The poll shows that the Progress Party is stealing voters from the Centre Party, Conservatives, and the Christian Democratic Party. But also some from those who did not vote in 2021:
- 22.2 percent of voters who voted for the Centre Party are now voting for the Progress Party.
- 21 percent of voters who voted for the Conservatives are now voting for the Progress Party.
- 13.2 percent of voters who voted for the Christian Democratic Party are now voting for the Progress Party.
- 12.7 percent of voters who did not vote are now voting for the Progress Party.
MAJORITY: Conservative leader Erna Solberg and Progress Party leader Sylvi Listhaug, along with the two other conservative parties, have a majority in the poll.
Photo: Heiko Junge
Hits Young Men
The background numbers show that the Progress Party particularly appeals to young voters.
In the age group of 18-29 years, the party has a support of 39.6 percent. The party also has a greater appeal to men than to women.
32.6 percent of Norwegian men would vote for the Progress Party, compared to 15.3 percent of women.
Check out Nettavisen’s October poll: Shocking poll: Progress Party is the largest again
Labour: – Really Bad
The Labour Party does not hide the fact that they find the numbers poor.
– This is a really bad poll for us. Our goal is clearly to be higher than this both in individual polls and the average of the polls, says Labour’s party secretary, Kjersti Stenseng, to Nettavisen.
BAD: Labour’s party secretary Kjersti Stenseng is not satisfied with the poll.
Photo: Heiko Junge
– Even though the numbers are bad, we must do what we can to continue talking about politics and the good solutions we have to ensure that people have better finances and a safer everyday life. We hope to gain the trust of voters leading up to the election next year, she adds.
Also read: Labour wants to drop several new highways: – Brutally
Solberg: – Low Shoulders
Conservative leader Erna Solberg points out that the poll differs from measurements from other media.
– It is very nice to have a conservative majority, and Nettavisen’s polls portray a slightly different picture than all other polls regarding who is the largest. We take this with low shoulders, because the trend is clear that people
In TV 2’s poll released on Monday, the Conservative Party was the largest party with 25.7 percent – and the Progress Party received 19.7 percent.
But even in October, the Conservative Party landed at 20 percent in Nettavisen’s poll. You have to go back to the time before the parliamentary elections in 2021 to find equally low numbers for the party.
LOW SHOULDERS: Conservative leader Erna Solberg says she takes the poll where they are not the largest, with low shoulders.
Photo: NTB
InFact responds as follows to the disparity between the polls:
– InFact observes that TV2’s polls over time show systematically higher support for the Conservatives compared to InFact’s polls. Simultaneously, we note that their polls for the Progress Party are significantly lower than both InFact’s and other polling institutes’ results, says analyst Mads Olsen from InFact to Nettavisen.
Olsen points out that the discrepancies can be explained by several factors, such as methodological differences, statistical margin of error, timing of data collection, and the news landscape during the period the poll was conducted.
– InFact stands behind the quality and reliability of its own work, he says.
Also read: Solberg promises to remove the wealth tax on operating capital
– Ready for a New Government
Solberg believes the decline of the Støre government is due to their spending too much time and money on reversals and “strange symbolic issues.”
– When it comes to the big challenges, there is a long way from words to action. The Conservatives are ready to give Norway a new proactive government that lowers taxes and boosts value creation, strengthens personal finances, shortens the record-long health queues and combats crime with more police officers, not empty offices, she says.
The other parties receive the following support: SV 8.4 percent, Venstre 5.2 percent, KrF 3.5 percent, MDG 4.3 percent, Rødt 7.0 percent, INP 1.5 percent, and Other parties 1.9 percent.
The recent poll conducted by Nettavisen shows significant political shifts in Norway, particularly highlighting a rise in support for the Progress Party, led by Sylvi Listhaug. Listhaug’s statements suggest optimism regarding her party’s potential to lead after the upcoming election, asserting that it is natural for the largest conservative party to take the prime minister’s position.
Key findings from the poll include:
– The Labour Party, led by Jonas Gahr Støre, is experiencing a notable decline, with support dropping to 17.7%, marking a historical low. The Centre Party also remains low at 6.2%.
– The Progress Party appears to be attracting voters from other parties, notably the Centre Party (22.2% of their voters are now supporting the Progress Party), the Conservatives (21%), and the Christian Democratic Party (13.2%). Additionally, a significant portion of previously non-voting individuals (12.7%) are now leaning towards the Progress Party.
– The Progress Party’s support is particularly strong among young voters aged 18-29, where it enjoys a remarkable 39.6% backing, and it has a more substantial appeal among men compared to women.
The Labour Party has openly expressed concern about the poll’s findings, with party secretary Kjersti Stenseng acknowledging the poor results and emphasizing the need to communicate their political solutions effectively.
Conservative leader Erna Solberg commented on the poll’s discrepancies with other media measurements, noting that the party seeks to maintain a level head despite varying results.
the political landscape is shifting as the election approaches, with the Progress Party gaining momentum at the expense of traditional parties such as Labour and the Centre Party.