2023-04-28 09:30:22
The Minister of Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire. BERTRAND GUAY / AFP
The Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, hailed “solidityof the French economy.
Growth in economic activity in France reached 0.2% in the first quarter of 2023, supported by the dynamism of industrial production and foreign trade, while household consumption of goods accentuated its decline, penalized by inflation. After a 2.6% increase in GDP over the whole of 2022, economic activity continued to resist and grow slightly at the start of 2023, despite a serious slowdown that began at the end of the year. last and repeated strikes against the pension reform.
This first estimate of the gross domestic product (GDP) by the National Institute of Statistics is slightly higher than its forecast, which forecast an increase of 0.1% over the first three months of the year, but in line with that of the Bank of France. The Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, hailed “solidityof the French economy, whose “fundamentals hold firm». «Businesses continue to invest and create jobs, bringing us closer to our goal of full employment“, he added.
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While household consumption of goods fell by 0.2% in the first quarter with a marked drop in food, hit by double-digit inflation, production of goods and services accelerated by 0.4% . The manufacturing industry, above all, showed dynamism (+0.7%). Like energy production which benefited from the reopening of nuclear power plants, output rebounded at refineries, as March strikes against pension reform were “less important“Than that of October last year, detailed INSEE.
Due to an increase in exports and a decline in imports, foreign trade contributed positively, by 0.6 percentage point, to GDP growth between January and March. Weighing heavily on demand, inflation reached 5.7% in March over one year in France, and even 15.9% for food products, which are now the main contributors to the rise in prices ahead of those of energy. These have calmed down after the outbreak caused by the war in Ukraine.
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clouds
INSEE must also give a first estimate of inflation in April on Friday, while French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the situation would remain difficult “until the end of summerabout food prices. After this slightly better-than-expected picture in the first quarter, French economic activity is likely to see clouds gathering in the following months.
Economists cite a combination of factors: food prices remaining at high levels despite a possible lull in inflation from mid-2023, global economic slowdown, drying up of credit under the effect of the rate hike decided by the European Central Bank , an energy crisis that could return to center stage with the return of winter… INSEE has not yet provided a growth forecast for the whole of 2023.
Now committed to a strategy of lower public spending to reduce France’s public debt, the government is planning a 1% increase in GDP over the year. It is more optimistic than the International Monetary Fund (0.7%) or the Banque de France (0.6%). INSEE has also revised down the growth figures for the third (0.1%) and fourth (0%) quarters of 2022 in France by 0.1 point, without this affecting the increase in GDP. of 2.6% recorded for the whole year.
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