From Aeneas a new model to analyze the climate in the Mediterranean

by time news

AGI – A new model capable of simulating the atmosphere-ocean dynamics in the Mediterranean Sea in relation to the physical and biological processes occurring on the earth’s surface, such as heat fluxes, CO2 absorption by terrestrial ecosystems and the hydrological cycle. Enea presented it on the occasion of World Oceans Day. The new model, which is called ENEA-RegESM, is able to process high resolution climate projections.

“The oceans and seas – explains Gianmaria Sannino, head of the Laboratory of Climate Modeling and Impacts at ENEA – play a fundamental role in the climate system of our planet through the sequestration of large quantities of carbon dioxide and heat produced by the greenhouse effect of anthropogenic origin. These processes, in turn, have a significant impact on the state of the oceans and cause, respectively, the acidification of the waters and the increase of their temperature and their volume, with all the consequent consequences on marine ecosystems and the populations living along the coasts “.

Gli ‘earth system model’

In studying climate and climate change, researchers around the world use earth system models, or models that describe the behavior of the different components of the global climate system and their interactions.

“In fact, it is essential to consider the Earth as a single complex dynamic system in which the earth’s surface, ocean and atmosphere interact with each other through multiple forms of feedback”, adds Sannino. To this end, ENEA researchers have developed a regional earth system model for the Mediterranean that simulates the dynamics of the atmosphere and the sea and the physical and biological processes that occur on the earth’s surface.

“Due to the geomorphological complexity of the Mediterranean basin, current global mathematical models are unable to correctly reproduce the physical processes and dynamics that occur in this densely populated area of ​​our planet“, explains Alessandro Anav, researcher of the Laboratory of Climate Modeling and Impacts of ENEA.

“Unlike other existing regional models, ENEA-RegESM can use two different models to simulate the dynamics of the atmosphere; this allows us to choose which model to use based on the complexity of the simulation and the performance of the model itself. in terms of calculation speed and accuracy of the outputs provided “.

The Super Calculator

Thanks to ENEA’s CRESCO6 supercomputer, one of the most powerful available in Italy for scientific computing, the researchers have already carried out several simulations, reproducing the climate of the Euro-Mediterranean region and the dynamics of the Mediterranean Sea over the last 30 years.

Currently they are engaged in the generation of climate projections using as input the climate data coming from the same global models (CMIP6) used by the IPCC to simulate the evolution of the climate according to different socio-economic scenarios. The Mediterranean Sea is under ‘special surveillance’, as it is an area where climate change is already running faster today than in most of the world and where the impacts will be particularly intense in the near future.

From an atmospheric point of view, the Mediterranean region is a transition zone between the temperate and the tropical belt characterized by low total annual rainfall; during the winter, rain is brought by the westerly winds, while the dry and hot summers depend on the influence triggered by the Indian monsoon. The conformation of the territory, the indented nature of the coastal areas with a considerable number of islands and straits and the variability of the orography of the internal continental areas make the Mediterranean basin a particularly complex region.

These morphological characteristics are the cause of strong local interactions between the atmosphere and the sea which lead to the formation of intense local winds, such as the Mistral and the Bora, which, in turn, significantly influence the circulation of the Mediterranean Sea.

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